Mayakoba Classic will be the first tourney this year with a relatively legitimate field. Despite missing some stars, there’s still a lot of good players out there and definitely a lot of value.
Going in, the favorites are JT, Ancer, Hovland, Finau, Brooks and Scottie. Hovland won last year which puts him up here and JT, Finau, Brooks and Scottie are all coming off of playing extremely well at the Ryder Cup putting them at the top. That being said, none of their odds to win are too great but some of the plays I’m looking at are as follows. Overall, kept the card pretty short since haven’t been able to watch too much this year but this should be a good first one to put some money on.
Sergio Garcia Top 20 +200
Sergio has always proven to be a relatively inconsistent golfer but it seems every year at the start of the season, we check the leaderboard Sunday to see him in the hunt. Should be a lot of players struggling in the bunkers this weekend, so I think Serg could put some plays together and sneak into the top 20
Mito Pereira Top 20 +220
Mito is a rookie that I’ve had my eye on and will write a lot more about in the upcoming blog about rookies but think taking the Chilean here is pretty good value. He just came in 30th at the Bermuda but I think +220 is pretty solid for him here.
Patrick Reed to Win +3500
No person I would love to see this tourney more than ole Sandy Reed. I’m hoping Reed goes on a bit of a fuck you tour this year and pulls together a couple wins and maybe it all starts in Cancun. His odds at 35-1 just seem a bit ridiculous to me considering how well he was playing at the end of the season despite getting pneumonia and missing the playoffs. Only spot to worry here is that Reed is on featured groups so he won’t be able to fluff up any of his lies but I think he can figure it out.
Mortal Lock
Billy Horschel Top 10 +300
Looking at past tournaments and last year’s tournament, this play feels way undervalued. Billy came in 5th last year and played extremely well throughout the playoffs. After not getting selected for the Ryder Cup, he went to Europe and won the BMW PGA Championship. Similar to Reed, Billy should still be a bit salty about not getting chosen for the Ryder Cup and I think he makes a run for the win this weekend.
Three Putt Bogeys 