We’re baaaacckkkkk. Well friends, it has been almost four months since the last tournament that actually mattered and we are finally (almost) there. We are heading to Hawaii for the Tournament of Champions to celebrate the real start of the PGA season. Without checking any facts, I’m also gonna say this is the first event with the new ESPN+ coverage, blog coming soon on that. This will also mark the new weekly blog for every tour event of 2022. We will be coming in hot with constant picks and locks for you all to make some money this year and will keep a unit count for all of you to prove ourselves. I can’t wait.
As always, let’s first take a look at last years tournament and see what we’re looking at from a historical standpoint.
Story of last year was how Harris English actually won this tournament despite not winning a single tournament in 2020. He got in due to some Covid issues and ended up dominating out in Hawaii. Something to note is that JT won this in 2020 and came in third last year, plus he looked fantastic in the PNC Championship, despite getting dominating by Tiger and Charlie.
Below are the odds for this weekend:
So I’ve seen odds for JT as low as +500 for this tournament and think it’s extremely fair to be the favorite per my statement above. At the PNC, it looked he’s driving it farther and could be locked in this year. JT is a fan favorite so really rooting for him to start the year off hot. A couple things that stick out out, Brooks +2900 seems quite high considering he played well in The Bahamas as well as The Match with Bryson. Just a little more competitive play than most over the last couple months. The other is the defending champ, Harris Egnlish getting absolutely disrespected by the oddsmakers at +3300.
So I want to preface a couple things for the new format I’ll be using for our picks. Most tournaments I’ll give two picks, a Mortal Lock and maybe a long shot or two. Unit wise, I would say it’s one unit on the normal picks, .25 on each long shot and two units on Mortal Locks. With golf being almost all plus odds it gives more opportunities for bigger payouts from smaller units so it’s worth throwing some long shots in there.
THE PICKS
Justin Thomas to Win: +800
Something about JT being +135 to be top 5 but +800 to win seems to make me think Vegas is expecting him to win this thing. Personally, I watched a lot of the PNC Championship and thought he looked as good as he ever has between his driving and his putting. His dad was hurting on Saturday and JT basically carried their team to stay in the tournament the entire day. Even though +800 is very low for a tournament I just think this could be too easy to pass up.
Patrick Reed Top 5: +490
Another thing that you will learn throughout these blogs is that I fucking love Patrick Reed. Is he a cheater? Yes. Do I care? No. Nobody in this world has succeeded without bending the rules for themselves a little bit and Patty Reed just helps himself out every once in a while. He is a master of his craft and will do whatever it takes to win. He has played pretty well over the years at this tournament and I think close to +500 odds for him to make a run is a bit high.
MORTAL LOCK: Xander Schauffele Top 10: -115
One of the very few minus plays I’ll give out but this just feels like free money. It’s a smaller field which is probably why it’s minus but Xander has always played well here. He is coming off a strong performance at the Tour Championship and Ryder Cup and I think this could be the year that he starts adding some trophies to the case. Put a couple units on my guy to get an easy top 10.
Longshots:
Kevin Na to Win +6500
Feels high for a guy that ended the year strong and got snubbed for the Ryder Cup. Potentially could make a run, who knows, but worth a shot at these odds.
Harris English to Win +3300
Why is the defending champ getting so much disrespect?? Why can’t he go out and win another one? Almost worth putting a full unit on but with these odds not much of a need.
Three Putt Bogeys 