Recap of Last Week
Well, last week didn’t go quite as planned. Some people are titling it the Massacre at Kapalua. One of the worst gambling performances they have ever seen. An absolute embarrassment. Something that most people should retire after. And I must say, you’re probably right. I let down each and every one of you. To the thousands that reached out asking how I am, thank you, but just know… I’m not giving up. I’m going to fight back and we are going to sweep the goddam board this weekend.
UNIT COUNT: -4.5 Units 😦
Last Year
Since we got the recap of the gambling out early, let’s talk about Kapalua. I know a lot of people are upset about the slaughter the players displayed on the course but it is what it is. The course depends so much on the wind and if it turns out to be perfect weather they’re just gonna murder it. Cam Smith put on a spectacular performance and somehow that caused Rahm to lose at -33. No words for that to be honest and feel bad for Rahm but guess he has some motivation to start the season. Overall, a pretty fun tournament still and we got to see the winner’s of last year show why they’re as elite as they are.
Moving on to this week where we stay in Hawaii for the Sony Open:
Last year, Kevin Na squeaked past Chris Kirk and Joaquin Niemann to get his fifth win of his career. He seems to like the vibes of Hawaii considering he performed pretty well last week as well coming in 13th and obviously looked very good at the end of the year.
Odds
Cam Smith is the clear favorite this week after the show he put on last week. Definitely fair, but not a chance that’s happening again… right? I know Kevin Kisner is the Barstool guy and everyone loves him and he’s overrated and shit but these are actually pretty good odds for him after he played so well last week. I think this course will end up playing relatively similar to last week as well especially if the weather continues but it should be a bit more difficult. Definitely expect scores in the 20’s so I think this week we’re gonna try to go with the hot hands.
The Picks
Matt Jones to Win: +3600
Balls of steel from me right? Took the favorite last week and got burned so now I’m taking 36-1 odds. I’m fucking crazy to be honest but I like it. 11th here last year, third place last week, closed the tournament hotter than anyone else. I’ll catch you guys at the cashier.
Kevin Kisner Top 20: +160
I know I called myself out earlier for talking about the Barstool guy but Kiz is pretty good and he’s a master of top 20’s. There’s a strong chance that I’m just following the public here and about to get burned considering last time I took him he ended up getting cut but let’s hope that doesn’t happen this week.
MORTAL LOCK: Kevin Na Top 20 +125
Don’t love taking past winners for a mortal lock and everyone is jumping on the Na train this week but feel like all the stats point to it. Hoping that he rides the hot hand and we can get ourselves a nice little winner here.
Longshots
Cam Davis +4600
Only one here this week and it’s so stupid I love it. We’re about to ride the Aussie train all the way through Hawaii.
I can’t wait to be up 30+ units after this week.
Three Putt Bogeys 