Recap of Last Week
Last week was the start of a major comeback. Did we eat? No, no we did not. Did we get swept? No. But did we learn? Yes. What we learned is the following:
- Never trust an Aussie. Matt Jones got cut after being scorching hot, embarrassing.
- Kevin Na is one bet away from being on the No Fly List. Everyone had him to win, I knew he wouldn’t but thought he could secure a top 20. What did he do? Came in 21st. We don’t support shitheads like that.
- I need to do more research. I let you all down and lost track of the days. I rushed my picks and it cost you all money. My million dollar unit betters are currently down $5.9 Million. That might sound like a lot, and it is, but I will make that back. I personally guarantee it, but for now the frowny faces will continue next to the unit count.
- Hideki might be the truth, until the Masters he was always a guy that would never win but I think we can officially consider him a threat. Seems like a nice fella as well. Also that 3 wood on the playoff hole was ridiculous
UNIT COUNT: -5.9 Units 😦
Now that the past is in the past, let’s talk about this week. Finally, we get a real tournament that has a legitimate field. Still not a full field but it’s the best we’ve gotten since September. The boys will be out in LA at La Quinta Country Club. A couple things to note, Phil set the course record there back in 2019 by shooting a 60 (came in 2nd). Rahm also won the tournament back in 2018 but hasn’t played here since 2019 where he placed sixth.
Recap of Last Year
Last year Si Woo Kim edged out a pretty packed leaderboard and took home the win at -23. After shooting an 87 the year prior and withdrawing he bounced back in the best possible way. Cantlay posted a 61 to close the week out to almost secure the come from behind win but Si Woo hit a deep birdie putt on 17 to give him the one stoke lead and closed out 18 for his third career win. With how Cantlay ended the season last year and how he performed here, definitely would say it’s fair that he has the second lowest odds to win the tournament.
Odds
Per everything I said above, clear favorites in Rahm and Cantlay and I don’t think a single person would be surprised if either of them won. If I were to choose one, I would say Cantlay since you can get him at +900 on Draftkings but I won’t be taking either this tournament. A couple things that stuck out:
- Despite placing 40th and 60th in previous years, Wolff has the ninth lowest odds. That’s stupid. I have been a believer that Wolff will get his first win since all of his issues started but I don’t foresee this being the tourney. Guy also loves to choke and it hurts betting on him. Guarantee he will not win.
- Ancer is very appealing since he has played very well at this tournament over the years but he was so piss poor at each tournament in Hawaii I just can’t advise it. Then again, maybe getting to leave two days early after getting cut reduced the jet lag.
- I can’t believe I’m about to say this but watch out for Big Dick Rick at +5000. Top 10 and Top 20 in his last finishes here and he needs to prove something other than his acting skills for commercials in order to make the Masters.
The Picks
Tony Finau to Win +2100
Sometimes you have to hate a pick to love it. I was always the biggest supporter that Finau is a choke artist and he would never get a win but here I am eating my words. Finau has always fared well at courses in Cali and he has been very good at the Amex Open. Came in 14th in 2020, 4th last year and this is the one he wins. Also love him for top 10 at +250 if you prefer to take a little less risk.
Jon Rahm Top European Player +125
Sometimes you just gotta take a favorite and cash the ticket. Rahm is 10x better than every player in this list and he plays till the final whistle (or well ball goes in the hole but that sounds weird). He is a comeback wizard if he ever falls back and down the stretch will be willing to play way more aggressive than these guys to likely get him a top 5 finish.
MORTAL LOCK
Rickie Fowler Top 20: +220
You heard it here first folks, the dick is back. He needs to come out firing in this tournament and the man that cares most about this tournament is him. He might even fuck around and win this thing but top 20 should be a walk in the park.
Longshots
Rickie Fowler +5000 – I’m sorry but I’m obsessed with this pick. It really just might be that easy.
Three Putt Bogeys 