It happened again. I don’t know what to say. I’m not sure if I am the worst gambler in the world or if these tournaments have just been very hard to bet on but things are looking grim. Most would give up at a time like this, but when it’s grim, someone has to be the grim reaper. Let that sink in for a little bit, original line I just thought of myself and has anyone ready to run through a brick wall when they hear it. I am the grim reaper. We are the grim reapers. We will comeback. We will win. There’s no stopping this movement. Now let’s go win some fucking bets.
Won’t lie I just reread that paragraph and watched that vid so I am hyped up right now. We are going to make so much fucking money this weekend. Between golf and NFL I might need to take a second mortgage out on my house and unfortunately for my million dollar unit betters you might need to sell a kid soon. But if you want my advice, I would say pawn the kid, get some money and put it all on these picks this week, we will get our vengeance. It’s time to win.
Total Unit Count: -10.15 I’m sorry 😥
AMEX Open Recap
For a recap of last week, Hudson Swafford pulled off the victory in a tight leaderboard, getting his third PGA tour win in his career. There were some emotional moments post fact as this was just the second tournament Hudson played since the passing of his father. As furious as I was losing every bet, it was cool to see a moment like that and always lets you remember how much sports can bring people together. He started the day three strokes back and hit a spectacular eagle to take a two-stroke lead on 16, eventually securing his spot in the 2022 Masters with the win. After the first day, it looked like Cantlay would cruise to his first win of the year, starting the day -7 thru 7 and second round leader at -14, but things slowed down immensely for the robot and he only finished 9th. Overall, an interesting tournament, a lot of different names at the top of the leaderboard but a good showing overall. One last thing to note, I called out Matt Wolff so hard last week and might have been the most correct man on the planet. They really gave him the ninth best chance to win the tournament and he got cut by EIGHT STROKES. What a fuckin joke hahhaha. Not sure why I didn’t just take him to get cut and the blood is on my hands but it’s good to know the sharp within me is still there.
2021 Farmers’ Insurance
Last year, the legend himself, Sandy Reed absolutely dominated the field and secured a 5 stroke win at Torrey Pines. It was where we saw the historic, “my ball is plugged,” performance. One of the great cheating scandals in recent memory. Hovland, Rahm and Tony all made a run for the win but nobody could get by the lie fluffer himself as he cruised to his 9th PGA Tour win. Something to note is that historically Torrey North is much easier to play and will be the first two rounds, where Reed even shot a 64 in Round 1. For the Friday and Saturday, they will play the US Open course where the course will prove to be much more difficult. We probably expect a similar score to last year but will likely depend on weather, which looks pretty good for the rest of the week.
Upcoming Odds
A pretty stacked field as a lot of the guys like to make this their first tournament of the year. With Rahm performing pretty well last week and winning the US Open at Torrey last year, pretty obvious why he is the clear favorite. This will also be the first tournament of the year for Bryson, DJ and Spieth so it should be a good time seeing those guys back in action. If I had to guess one of these three will end up missing the cut and one will get a top 10. As you’ll all learn throughout the years of this blog, I will root for Jordan Spieth until the end of eternity. I will bet him to win, I will take him live for birdies, I will never give up on the man. So yes, you can expect some extreme bias towards him. That being said, I won’t be taking him this week out of fear he starts the season slow. From looking at the previous three years, the most consistent guy seems to be Rahm, who also won this tournament in 2017. He has always said that Torrey Pines is his favorite course so it’s hard to expect anything but greatness from him this week. Last thing to remember is that the tournament will begin tomorrow rather than Thursday. PGA showed some respect to the NFL and declared it pointless to try and show this on Championship Sunday.
The Picks
Jon Rahm to Win: +750
I hate picking the favorite but everything here just screams Rahm. He was fired up last week calling the course a bullshit putting contest so I think he’s ready to make a statement. He’s playing at his favorite course, it plays to every one of his strengths and last year it got him his first ever major. I think this really could be that easy and we can secure a win here.
Xander Schauffele Top 20: +105
Xander performed well at the Sentry a few weeks ago and came in second last year. He also finished top 10 at the US Open last year so he knows the course very well. I think he can make a run for top 10 but feel safe with a top 20 here. Don’t Slander My Xander!!
MORTAL LOCK
Matthew Wolff Top 30: +185
I consider myself the greatest reader of Matthew Wolff in the game. I know when he will perform and I know when he will meltdown. Last week I predicted a meltdown from him and this week I foresee him putting things together. He finished top 20 in the tournament two years ago and 15th in the US Open so he has some good experience at the course. Torrey Pines plays to his strengths and I think the value on his top 30 is entirely too high.
Longshots
Max Homa to Win +5500
Max is a big Cali guy and he has performed pretty well at this tournament in the past. He secured a top 20 last year and I think he could make a run for the money this year. Would be nice to steal a win here.
Three Putt Bogeys 