Gambling Recap
Welcome back everyone, welcome back. I already recapped the absolute TEAR we went on at the Waste Management tourney,so won’t talk about that too much — but GOD what a tournament. One of the best days of golf and gambling in history. Crazy close action at the top of the leaderboard, and a clean 32 unit profit on the day. Thank you to all the followers that sent their betslips in, now let’s see if we can run it back. This week we head onto the beautiful yet unforgiving Riviera Golf Course in LA. The field is extremely strong, which should be the perfect follow up tournament after the insanity of last week.
Recap of Last Year
Last year we saw a pretty insane ending where both Tony Finauand Max Homa battled it out in a playoff, after Homa lipped out the winning putt on 18 from just 3ft away. It looked like it could finally be Finau’s first win – instead his tendency to choke took the reins and he collapsed. On the second playoff hole, a par 3, Finau ended up bogeying and Homa stole the win with a par. With both Finau and Homa finishing -12, Riviera once again proved itself as one of the most difficult courses on tour.
Here’s a link to the video of Max Homa lipping out on 18 to force a playoff with Tony Finau:
Odds for the Weekend
As you can see – absolutely STACKED board, as we see players like Rory and Morikawa making their first real starts of the year in America. A lot of the same guys from Waste Management as well, so I expect competition to be extremely high this week.After yet another top 10 finish for Rahm, he secures his role as the favorite heading into the weekend with Cantlay just one spot back. The two of them have both been in high contention for their first wins of the year, but neither have closed the deal yet. I don’t love this spot for either of them, honestly, since the course is so difficult and those odds just don’t seem worth the risk. BUT, per usual, nobody would be surprised if they won. A few things that stick out:
- Max Homa, the defending champion is +4100. Also came in 5th in 2020 so he wasn’t a one hit wonder here
- Homa hasn’t played incredible lately, but he also has put some solid rounds together. He’s a Cali boy and seems to always play well in his home state so I don’t think he should be ruled out.
- In the last four years, Finau has finished 2nd twice and had a top 15 at this tournament, odds are +4100.
- He has been playing pretty shitty lately especially from his standards but that does sound quite high
- Zalatoris is interesting here. He finished 15th last year, the only time he has played and has been playing very well as of lately. +2900 doesn’t sound like a bad number here.
- A lot of the stats point to Sam Burns to win and you can even get him at +4000 over at Draftkings. He should have won this last year so might be coming for some vengeance.
THE PICKS
To Win: Matthew Fitzpatrick +3500
This is no doubt a bold move, but I think it’s time for Fitz to finally get his first win. He’s been playing so well as of late and this course fits his game to a tee. He finished 5th last year and his last four finishes heading into this weekend are 2nd, 12th, 6th and 10th. I really think he is incredibly undervalued here — he has tons of experience on difficult courses and getting wins over in Europe, so this feels like the perfect spot for him.
Matchup of the Week: Leishman over Sergio Garcia -120
I am actually a huge fan of Serg and not the biggest of Leishman, but this matchup does NOT suit Serg well at all. He either misses the cut, or just barely makes it and stays towards the bottom almost every year. Leishman has the ability to perform here, including a 4th place finish back in 2019. I think Serg ends up getting cut giving us an easy win here.
Fuck this Guy: Russel Henley to Miss the Cut +275
Henley has played pretty well lately but last week should have been somewhere he could have shined. He had been playing well and the course played to his strengths he but ended up finishing 33rd overall, disappointing to say the least. He has consistently struggled playing at Riviera as well including 38th and 44th in two of the last three years. He seems to just squeak by the cut line but I think after the disappointment of last week it’ll rally into a missed cut.
MORTAL LOCK: Dustin Johnson Top 20 -125
DJ has placed top 10 the last three years, and 18th in 2018. I really think that he could win this thing, but a top 20 feels like a safe bet. It’s been a long time since he has been in top form, and I think a difficult course like Riviera could bring out his best. Top 20 for him should be -300 and I don’t foresee us having any issues cashing in on this one.
Longshots:
Xander Schauffele Hole in One +10,000 – After last weekend I can’t help but chase a hole in one
Thomas Pieters to Win +7000 – Pieters has won twice in the last couple months oversees and is coming off a 12th place finish. I think this is worth a shot just in case, maybe you’ll even get a big cashout Sunday.
Sam Burns to Win +4000 (DK) – He really hasn’t looked great lately, but +4k seems like too much.
Three Putt Bogeys 