Gambling Recap
Last week was tough. I did absolutely all the research to guarantee back to back wins. Turned out, Matthew Fitzpatrick had a belly ache and couldn’t play. Straight disappointment is an understatement. I had about 10 minutes to decide the backup pick was, and went with Sam-fuckin-Burns. Turned out Burns is still playing like shit, and absolutely blew up on the second day to find himself cut. I let you down. He let me down.
We are prepared to do better. I am ready to fight for the honor that I have posting these picks.
Overall, a below average week of betting as DJ still doesn’t seem to have balls, and Russel Henley decided to have an absolute party on Friday to make the cut. We got the easy win with Leishman, though it was a pretty disappointing week.
Unit Count: +30 Units
Tournament Recap
Honestly, the tournament was kind of shitty this year.. Niemann blew everyone out of the water from day one and went wire to wire to win the tournament. It was a very impressive feat. After Fitz withdrew, the tournament was wide open and he took advantage. Would’ve loved to see our Brit take the Chilean down, but unfortunately it wasn’t meant to be. Heading into Sunday – Niemann had a 3 stroke lead ahead of Cam Young, and it looked like he’d close it out with ease. Niemann ended up slightly struggling in the latter part — and despite starting EIGHT strokes back, Morikawa gave him a run for his money with two chip-ins to try to force a playoff in the final holes. Colin needed to eagle 17 and birdie 18, but ended up only birdieing on 17, leaving him two strokes short in the end.
Both Morikawa chip ins below:
Recap of Last Year
Last year, Matt Jones dominated the field and took home a 5 stroke victory for his second career win. Similar to this year, the field was weak leaving the tournament wide open for the Aussie to get his money this tournament. The course plays difficult historically — the previous three winners didn’t even break -10. The tournament is played in Palm Beach at PGA National Resort and Spa, so we’ll be looking for some homebodies that might have some experience here.
Odds for the Weekend
Since the tournament has a pretty lame field, I figured I would include some extra options here as I think everyone is worth looking at. Sungjae Im opens as the favorite being a previous champion and placing eighth last year. The biggest name in this tournament is definitely Brooks Koepka who has ranged from a third place finish back in 2019 to a missed cut in 2020. He didn’t play last year so not sure what to think there.
Things I’m looking at:
- Tommy Fleetwood makes his first appearance on the Tour since the Zozo Championship in October. He’s been playing some decent golf over in Dubai and finished 8th at the Saudi International
- He has never won on the PGA Tour but has racked up five via the European Tour
- Placed 3rd in 2020 and 4th in 2018
- He seems to know the course very well and feels comfortable, so could be worth a look at +2000.. but to me that seems too low for a first time winner
- Billy Horschel is the most well-known Florida guy out there, but has rarely performed well at this course
- 42nd in 2020, 16th in 2019, Cut in 2018
- Personally I feel a little uncomfortable taking Billy at +2100 when he is around +6-8k in other tournaments
- Keith Mitchell +3500
- Keith has been playing very well as of lately including cashing our mortal lock at the Waste Management. He won this tournament back in 2019 beating out Koepka and Fowler so he definitely has performed under pressure here
THE PICKS
NOTE: I am changing the unit size this week since it’s very hard to predict this kind of tournament. All numbers will be labeled
Winner – Keith Mitchell +3500 – 1 unit
I like Keith a lot — he has obviously proven his potential. I mentioned him above and since he’s been playing so well lately he should definitely have an opportunity to win this. The board is weak, and I think this is a perfect time for him to take advantage.
Matchup of the Week – Bezuidenhout over Cam Young -105 – .5 Units
Cam Young is coming off one of the best performances of his life at the Genesis Open — I think that might have worn him down. He just cashed a nice million-dollar check, and I think that might’ve called for some celebration this week. The course fits well for Bez and he should have a strong finish this week.
Balls on the Table – Billy Horschel To Miss the Cut +275 .5 Units
This is something new that I’m trying. Try to find the guy that the public is riding hard and figure out if it’s solely due to the weakness of the board. Billy has been very sloppy on this course, and his approach to greens hasn’t been that great lately. You will probably have a lot of friends taking him to win so having this could be a great spot to shove it in their face for not reading the play.
MORTAL LOCK – Hole in One +125 – 2 Units
I won’t lie, this is a lame fucking pick.. BUT this fits the sheer shit of this board and tournament. It’s plus odds and I don’t want to hammer anything this week, so I think it could be fun to just root for someone to hole out. Last year, Brendan Steele got absolutely CUCKED on a hole in one and I think that means we are due this year. Look out for that PGA push notification this week. (Link below for Steele’s lip out last year).
Longshots – 1/4 Unit Plays
Lucas Glover +6500 – He’s been pretty consistent here and I think we’ll see his name up on the leaderboard
Brendan Steele +14000 – came in 3rd last year and 4th the year before so not understanding this pure disrespect.
Harry Higgs +18000 – Harry had the best strokes gained on approach here last year and has been playing very well as of lately. He’s a super likeable guy and I think it’s worth a shot here.
Danny Willett +20000 – He won the Masters and is 200/1 against a weak board. Why not him right?
Three Putt Bogeys 