Gambling Recap
Well I can’t say that went as planned. I knew that it was going to be a hard week with the bad field but even I didn’t expect that kind of beat down. We had a couple really bad beats between Horschel getting a birdie on 17 to make the cut and Cam Young beating Bez on the 72nd hole. A couple putts go our way and we’re looking at a positive week but unfortunately things didn’t fall our way. Keith Mitchell played pretty average but still squeaked out a top 10 but never truly looked like he was going to get it done. To top everything off, we couldn’t even get a fucking hole in one so being a sell out on the mortal lock bit me in the ass. I promise to be better and I know we’re primarily riding off the units from Waste Management but I think the next two weeks should provide some big opportunities.
Unit Count: +25 Units
Recap
The tournament started out looking like it would go the same way as the Genesis with Berger taking a commanding lead on Friday. He stayed hot and went into Sunday with a 5 stroke lead, looking like he would just roll to his win. Then something dark happened on the par 5, hole 3. Berger missed his drive left behind a tree and things spiraled from there. He ended up with a double bogey and his lead was quickly down to 2. He went on to bogey holes 5 and 6 allowing Lowry to steal the lead. It looked like Berger and Lowry were going to duel it out until the end as Berger kept chipping in but then Sepp Straka began surging from the 14th hole and after hitting a crazy birdie putt on 16 he was tied for the lead. As the rain poured down on 18, Lowry shanked his drive as Straka almost drained a 50 foot eagle to end it right there. Lowry needed a birdie but left his putt just short as Straka secured his first PGA Tour win.
The other story of the week was the extreme difficulty of the course where players were constantly double and triple bogeying and balls were flying into the water. Below are some highlights of the disaster at PGA National
Recap of Last Year
Last year, it was the Bryson Dechambeau show at Bay Hill. All week, everyone was talking about his potential drive on the par 5, 6th hole where some believed he could drive the green. It was one of the cooler moments of the year as the crowd absolutely shit themselves when Byrson hit the drive on Sunday and he did his pointing thing. Bryson went on to outduel Lee Westwood as he flexed and screamed and looked like he almost shit himself when he hit the final putt to secure his 8th career win.
Something worth noting about this course and tournament. There was a huge change in the course after 2018, where the greens have become more difficult and the rough has become longer. With firm and fast greens, that means that we will need to find someone that can either crush the ball off drives or is a nasty scrambler. I have also noticed that the last two years, there is little to no scoring on the final day. For example, last year, Bryson finished -1, beating out Lee Westwood who finished +1. In 2020, Hatton finished with a final round of +2 to close out the win. Just something to be mindful of when making picks and considering live bets on Sunday.
Odds for the Weekend
A pretty solid field, especially when considering what we had last week. Bryson unfortunately withdrew on Monday due to a “wrist injury” aka he blew out his back trying to hit the ball too hard. Rahm opens as the favorite despite never playing in this tournament, but we all know why he is anyways. Rory has probably the best course history here and he has been playing well as of lately, he just seems to choke down the stretch stopping him from getting any wins. I would expect Rory to put at least 1 or 2 good rounds together but last year he closed the week with a +4 round and I just wouldn’t be surprised if the trend continues.
A few things that stick out:
- Hovland is the third favorite on the board yet his three finishes here are 49th last year, 42nd in 2020 and 40th in 2019.
- Some would call that a digressing trend and despite his recent track record it’s difficult to push the history here aside
- Sungjae Im is sitting at +2900 and he finished 3rd place in both 2020 and 2019. He also finished 21st last year so he does play well here
- He looked like shit last week and got cut as the favorite so it depends how you let that play into things
THE PICKS
Winner – Matthew Fitzpatrick +2900
I absolutely loved Fitz at The Genesis and was extremely disappointed when he withdrew. I think it’s very difficult to overlook his recent finishes as well as his course history at Bay Hill. His last three finishes here are 10th in 2021, 9th in 2020 and 2nd in 2019. My other factor for this tournament was The Players where he scored a top 10 so he has proven he’s comfortable in Florida. His last four finishes heading into this weekend are also 2nd, 12th, 6th and 10th so he has been hot. Scrambling is one of the most important things at this tournament as well where he is a top player on tour.
Winner – Will Zalatoris +2900
We’re taking two swings at the winner here. I’m not in love with any of the cut bets this week and the only one that really sticks out is Hovland but not sure I want to play with fire on that. Zalatoris fits everything on this course, he is number one on tour over the last 24 rounds in SG- Approach and he has really pulled his putting together. He finished 10th here last year and checks off the experience in The Players where he was 21st. This year has been the trend of guys getting their first win and Will fits the narrative perfectly.
Matchup – Keith Mitchell Over Sam Burns -120 (DK)
Keith has been playing very well as of lately and even got a top 10 last week. Burns has turned out to be the complete opposite. Keith seems to fare well on Florida courses and has proven it on this course. Last year wasn’t his best with 43rd place, but the two years prior he had 5th and 6th place finishes. Burns was cut last year and the two prior finished low on the leaderboard. Overall, Keith has won this matchup in 3 straight and I think between course history and recent performance, this should be an easy win.
Mortal Lock – Jason Kokrak Top 20 +210
Kokrak has proven to be a veteran at this course with an 8th, 18th and 10th place finish the last three years and is constantly looking to win this tournament. He has the experience of winning after getting two wins in 2021 as well so he knows what it takes. He played well at the Genesis and I think he gets his name near the top of the leaderboard this weekend.
Longshot
Cam Young +8000 – Cam has been on fire as of lately and with the long rough his driving abilities should be a huge strong suit for him to make a run. This feels way overvalued considering his performance as of late.
Three Putt Bogeys 