Alright, I think I have some apologizing to do, I fucked up. I had everything in my hands and I dropped it like DK Metcalf. Ever since the pick of the year, Scottie at the Waste Management, I’ve been letting the pressure get to my head and got sloppy. While some would say that I should hang up the cleats and move on, I’m ready to fight back. I‘ve been coined as the biggest big game hunter over my years. This is my opportunity to prove myself and I’m prepared to put it all on the line and guarantee a winner this weekend. I’m going back to my old ways — we are all going to cash some fucking bets and walking away with some real money. I won’t even acknowledge my picks — I know I can make excuses but that’s not why I’m here. I won’t talk about how Zalatoris was looking ready to win the tournament on the first day, then shat all over his pants. Nor will I mention that Fitz finished top 10 and had plenty of opportunities to win. I’m not making any excuses. It is officially time for one of the best tournaments of the year. This is our time to get a fucking win.
Gambling Announcement
I am going to change the format a bit this week. For starters, we developed a board to expand the picks each tournament – wewill be consistently changing who makes picks in order to provide the most winners we can. I’ll still be writing blogs each week to explain my picks, and will post a weekly graphic with all picks on here, IG and TikTok. Please let me know if there is anything else you guys would like to see as well. The picks will be:
- Winner
- Longshot
- Fuck this Guy
- Mortal Lock
Recap of Last Week
Last week was an absolute battlefield. The course was easily the most challenging of the year, which ended up beating the living shit out of many of the top golfers in the field. By Sunday, the rough was extremely long and the greens were absolute glass. Players were dropping bogeys, doubles – putting balls in the water left and right. It looked like anybody could win the tournament for a while. It ended up becoming a battle between Scottie and Hovland — then it looked like Woodland might snagthe robbery, but after some extremely impressive scrambling,Scottie came out victorious. It was an incredibly fatiguing tournament for everyone, but Scottie proved that his win at the Waste Management was by no means a fluke and he’s here to stay. At 25, Scottie has now won two big name tournaments and it doesn’t look like he will be slowing down any time soon.
Here is a look at some of the carnage from the Arnold Palmer Invitational:
Last Year
Last time we were at Sawgrass, the tournament undeniablydelivered. For a while it looked like Rahm could get the win -but JT showed the fuck out on Saturday and took home the biggest win of his career. 17 on Sawgrass caused some self-destruction throughout the tournament — balls were constantly flying into the water. Lee Westwood and Bryson were fighting alongside JT for the win but he was able to throw his dicknballson the table and take home the trophy.
JT going off last year:
The Official Breakdown of The Players Championship
Before I dig into the odds, let’s talk about a few things since this is The Players.
- Course History – Sawgrass has consistently been an extremely difficult course with some of the most notorious holes in golf.
- 16 is a dangerous par 5 that can make or break your week, with opportunities to eagle or double
- 17 is the floating par 3 and one of the most well known holes in the world
- 35 balls in the water in round one alone
- 18 has the capability to ruin any players’ round and could flip the tournament with the flip of a switch
- We saw JT was about 5 feet from losing the tournament on his tee shot here
- Field
- 48 of the top 50 players in the field will attend, obviously, making it one of the most stacked fields of the year
- Purse
- This will be the biggest purse in golf history at $20 MILLION
- Weather – this will likely be the most important part of the tournament this year
- Forecast below:
- It is going to be complete hell out there, so we are looking for someone with experience in playing harsh weather, difficult conditions, alongside a strong field
Odds for the Weekend
Alright, let’s get into the weeds and find our winner. Morikawa and Rahm open up as the favorites for the weekend — deservingly so. This field is absolutely stacked, so let’s start the breakdown:
- Morikawa
- Best in the world in SG: Approach
- Won The Open in a VERY windy tournament
- Rahm
- Is having his worst short game stretch of his career but is still constantly getting top 10’s and 15’s
- Only a matter of time until he puts it all together
- Rory
- Rory has been close to winning a lot but has been falling apart in the later round
- He was obviously shook after last week but the soft conditions could play to his favor
- Hovland and Scottie
- Both are on absolute fire – historically someone who is as hot as either of them wins this tournament
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Continues to rack up top-tens, and the conditions are similar to what he is used to
THE PICKS
Winner – Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Hideki has been one of the hottest guys on tour and has consistently proven he can step up in the biggest moments. He’s well proven as a strong ball striker and has performed very well at this course over the years – with an eighth and ninth place finish over the last five years. From a weather perspective, he won the Zozo this year in cold temperatures AND won The Masters in the rain. I think Hideki could pull it off this week -and +3500 seems to be great value for a player of his caliber. Lastly, many forget he had the outright lead in 2020 before The Players was cancelled due to Covid.
Longshot – Si Woo Kim +7500
Si Woo hasn’t been playing at the top of his game lately, but he has strung together some big top 25’s over the last few weeks. You have to respect the guy — he won this tournament before, and 75-1 seems extremely disrespectful. His name could easily show up high on the leaderboard come Sunday.. This feels almost too easy..
Fuck this Guy – Joaquin Niemann to Miss the Cut +160
Neimann won the Genesis Open in impressive style, but he’s been extremely inconsistent. He didn’t make the cut at the Honda Classic — and when looking through his track record in Florida, he’s had a GOOD number of cuts. +160 is good value, and when considering how over-stacked this field is, I can definitely see him falling off.
Mortal Lock – Daniel Berger Top 30 +105
I think this value is ridiculous.. Berger has been playing at the top of his game and probably should have won the Honda Classic. He’s a veteran when it comes to Florida golf coursesand I think he can even make a run to win this thing. He came in ninth place last year. I don’t see any reason why this shouldn’t cash with ease..
Best Prop – Rory to Eagle Round 1 +550
Since it’s The Players, I figure I’d throw a little prop in. Rory knows this course very well and I could easily see him getting an eagle on 16. +550 seems worth a shot.
THE OFFICIAL PICKS OF THE BOARD
Three Putt Bogeys 