Recap of Last Week
What a fucking weekend. We went from having a pretty average tournament to absolute pandemonium in the last minute of the tournament. Before we breakdown the final stretch, just a quick recap of the first couple days. Thursday started out as the Rory show, as he came out on absolute fire finishing the round at 5 under snagging the first round lead. It seemed as we were witnessing the return of Rory, but that quickly changed on Friday as he fell off the leaderboard and Zalatoris took the reins. Meanwhile, Tiger put on a show of his own as he battled like no other to make the cut. Many are calling it one of the most heroic performances of all time. And of course, without a doubt he cashed the first of our mortal locks. (What happened on Saturday with Tiger will go unmentioned and we will only say that we hope he didn’t hurt himself too bad and will be ready for the US Open — or at the very least The Open).
Highlights of The King:
Moving on to Saturday, the young rookie Mito Pereira proved he wasn’t going away. He quickly took the lead from Willy Z and began running away with it. He ended Saturday with a three stroke lead and it looked like the young Chilean just might do it. Mito came up to 17 and dropped his absolute nuts on the field and drove at the green — we all thought he had an easy chip to birdie and was just about seal the win until he botched his chip and finished with par with only a one hole lead. That was when the meltdown ensued. Right there is when the whole world realized that this 25 year old now had to get a par on the hardest hole, on one of the hardest courses on Tour to win the PGA Championship. The world was locked in on his next tee shot awaiting heroic or disaster. Mito looked ready for the moment as he whipped out the driver and proved he wasn’t backing down from the moment. Wellllll, maybe he should have backed down just a tad…..
FOREEEEEEEE!!! Mito spanked one into the water, and everyone then knew a playoff was likely. He then went on to double bogey -completely eliminating himself from contention in one of the greatest meltdowns in golf history. The playoff was set between JT and Willy Z for the first time since the 2017 Masters, and the rest is history. JT proved he was built for the moment and took home the victory. The full playoff is below if you haven’t seen it or want to rewatch. In my opinion, this was easily the coolest format I’ve ever seen for a playoff. 3 hole aggregate, a difficult eagle opportunity on a par 5, a drivable par 4 and a gruesome 18th. This made every shot more thrilling than the last and we were on our feet the entire time watching.
Gambling Recap
From a gambling perspective, we did pretty well. We hit two out of our three mortal locks and could have gone 3/3 if Brooks didn’t have such a roller coaster of a round. Xander looked like he could have been a contender after the first day, but he never made a move throughout the rest of the tournament — so pretty disappointing from my standpoint on that one. Our fellow board member, Mr. Right Now, took home the win with JT, bringing home our third win of the year. The board even swept the mortal locks and proved we are all big game hunters and here to fuck shit up when it comes to the majors. Now, it’s time to follow that up with a not so big tournament — though a fun one nonetheless — the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Recap of Last Year
Last year, we saw Kokrak outduel Spieth for his second win of the year. Spieth went into Sunday with the lead but gave it up by going 3 over, handing the win to Kokrak. It would have been a great second win for Spieth showing that he is the king of Texas, but luck wasn’t on his side on Sunday.
Odds for the Weekend
Pretty solid board this week after the gruesome PGA Championship, but it’s good to see so many names battling it out ahead of the Memorial. Some things were looking at:
- Scottie, JT and Spieth are your favorites all deservingly so
- Scottie had a tough showing at the PGA so we’ll see if he can bounce back
- Morikawa has performed quite well here, this was the place of his infamous playoff lip out against Berger
- Fleetwood pulled a Rory on Sunday and had a great round at Southern Hills to sneak into the top 5 so he could have the hot hand
- Kokrak comes in at +4800 as your defending champion in a year where previous winners have excelled. Could be worth throwing a few dollars here.
THE PICKS
Winner – Gary Woodland +5000
Gary was trending upwards for a while until a bad showing at the Wells Fargo. He finished in 34th at the PGA which earnedhim a decent payout, but it’s definitely keeping him hungry for a win. In the past he’s performed very well in Texas, as well as at the Charles Schwab specifically so I really like him in this spot. I think the stars put everything they had into Southern Hills so this is a good spot for someone who was middle of the pack to come in and get this win.
Longshot – Troy Merritt +11000
Troy has been a pretty consistent longshot for me and almost won the Valero at +10000 back in April. He has been playing well all year and has proven to be a strong performer in Texas. Last year he finished 8th and I really do think that he is due for a win with how he has performed so far this year. His odds are constantly disrespectful for someone who has put up some top 5’s and 10’s so this is definitely worth the money.
Fuck This Guy – Erik Van Rooyen to Miss the Cut +160
Van Rooyen has been inconsistent at this course and all Texas courses over the last couple years, so this value feels pretty high to me. He got cut at the PGA so hopefully that knocks down his mojo a bit which should show, especially playing somewhere he isn’t too comfortable playing. He has been quiet since the RBC so hopefully things stay that way.
Parlay of the Week – Ancer, Spieth, Finau Top 20 +930
Going to start dropping these each week and feel good about racking up some wins through them. I think each player has something to prove whether it be a slow week for Spieth and Finau and wanting to get a better finish under their belts or Ancer showing he’s starting a trend. Let’s see if we can get ourselves a nice winner here.
MORTAL LOCK – Sam Burns Top 20 +140
This will be a walk in the park for the boys. Burns has been a killer on Texas soil and has done well on this course the last couple years. He had a solid performance at the PGA and I think that he’s going to rally this into a potential win this week. Watch out for Burns lighting up the course and potentially making a run at this thing.
Three Putt Bogeys 