Betting Guide: LIV – Portland

Welcome back, welcome back. To be honest, I thought there would be more to talk about coming into this week, but it turned out the new guys joining LIV were actually those rumored. I should mention, I may have jumped the gun on Berger. I still think he’s going to join the Jupiter crew of DJ and Brooks, but as of now DB_StraitVibin is sticking around the Tour. Actually, I think the biggest news came out on Tuesday when we got to see all the new guys talk to the press. Going in, I expected it to show a lot of resemblance to London where the guys got slaughtered by questions and didn’t seem prepared. This time it really didn’t give that vibe and, oddly enough, it didn’t feel like the guys were complete sell outs. Maybe I’ve just become immune to it, but I truly believed they were there for (at least some of) the right reasons. I will put Brooks and Bryson aside for now since these guys are super media trained and they know how to answer questions with confidence and all that bs.. but the ones that stuck out to me were Pat Perez and Matt Wolff. Perez talked about missing his kids birth and childhood, saying that he basically hit the lottery with LIV — and Wolff (whilst being a little too obsessed with college) spoke about what it means to him being on a team and how he finally is walking around with a smile ahead of an event. For once, it felt like guys had the balls to be genuine – free to say what everyone wanted to hear, the truth. Maybe the PGA isn’t the easiest company to work for and that it definitely isn’t for everyone. It’s unfortunate that a line has been drawn so unbelievably hard by the PGA, but it’s clear that some of these guys are fighting to bring something to the game.

I continue to root for the PGA and LIV to create an alliance and maybe we get a cool joint logo or some shit like that but for now and always, I will continue to support both and write about whichever tour is putting out the best field. This week, the John Deere Classic has a field that makes me want to barf so let’s focus on Portland.

Field

As is status quo for LIV, the field will be 48 players and 12 teams. There was no draft this week and I am still unsure how they were picked but the teams are below:

I don’t have too many comments but clearly the Aces are fucking loaded. It’s also good to see our Fireballs caught a pretty nice revamping over the break. According to Sergio, we are renaming and branding but rest assured we will be standing by our team. I have thought a lot about how I would have formatted this whole team structure and I might write something for how they should do everything/how it could work for the PGA one day.

The Course

The event will be held at Pumpin Ridge Golf Club in Portland, Oregon. If this course sounds familiar to you, it’s because it was where Tiger Woods won his third straight US Amateur Championship. They will play both courses, Ghost Creek and Witch Hollow, I’m not sure if combined in one round or alternate but the site says ‘holes from each course will be featured.’

Odds for the Week

Living in NJ, we are still waiting for official sportsbooks to post odds – so for now I am still finding the odds online. Let me know how you guys are betting this, especially if you’re in the NJ/NY area.

Some things I’m looking at:

  • DJ is still probably in the best shape of everyone in the tournament but +650 seems a bit ridiculous for a guy that hasn’t won since 2020
  • Ancer hasn’t been in top form but he did perform very well at the PGA getting a top 10. He is one of the younger guys out there and I think he could step up
  • Brooks and Bryson are both interesting, but considering their performances this year it’s hard to bet them at these numbers. I think we give them until next tournament before jumping on that train – they’ll be much more rested
  • Wolff really did sound so motivated and excited for this tournament and I think +2500 isn’t a bad number for him

THE PICKS

Winner – Patrick Reed +1400

I thought Reed looked very determined and ready to go in the press conference. He’s in love with the course and it seems like he’s taking things very seriously. He talked about how the greens play to his chipping style and with Pumpkin Ridge being a difficult course, I think he can find some comfort. Sandy Reed hasn’t been in the best of forms but I think he definitely has it in him to take this one home.

Longshot – Scott Vincent +5000

The commentators couldn’t get enough of Scottie at the last tournament — and rightfully so. The guy was an absolute stud on the DP Tour and I think he has a lot of potential. He dresses with some swag whilst looking like a bit of a douche so I think he fits the mold as the type of guy to win here. There was clearly a lot of attention on him last tournament and I don’t think he was completely ready for it, but now with some of the pressure off his shoulders he should be in a good spot.

Team – Fireballs

If I drop this before the odds come out I will come back and update it but we will continue to ride with the Fireballs until we win. The new squad is pretty nasty and seems to be all of our Latin/Spaniard players combining forces. They are definitely a top three team in the league right now and I think have a strong chance at taking home the trophy.

MORTAL LOCK – Matthew Wolff Top 10 +475

I can’t emphasize enough that Wolff looked like a different person in the presser yesterday. He made that comment about how a 75 never looked so good when you’re on a team and it feels like he has let go of so much of the pressure he has put on himself. He was smiling and having fun out there and I think everyone that watched the presser, whether they agree with LIV or not, felt he showed the most determination of all players. I think he can make a run at winning this thing but top 10 seems like an easy winner.

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