Ladies and Gentlemen, it is time to prepare yourselves for one of the most historic tournaments of our lifetime.. The 150th Open Championship held at the Home of Golf — The Old Course at St. Andrews. We are in a time where golf is a full on drama series.. so much so that it almost feels like it could should be an upcoming Netflix documentary series. That being said, this week is not about LIV, it’s not about the PGA or the DP Tour, nor is it about Norman or Jay. No sir (or ma’am for my female readers), it is all about crowning a champion on the 150th anniversary of one of the greatest tournaments in the world. Let’s get started.
Gambling Recap
Quick recap of last week as we ended up striking out on our picks: Spieth looked promising at times, but he couldn’t hit a par 3 for his fucking life which ended up costing him in the end. The Board continued to stay hot as Warden of the Lou and Mr. Right Now hit both their ‘Fuck This Guy’ bets AND Mortal Locks. Some fun stats for those two:
- Warden’s last five winners picks: 1st, 1st, Cut, 2nd and 4th
- Mr Right Now’s last two Mortal Locks: Xander at Scottish Open, Brendan Grace at LIV – Portland
Goes without saying, but the boys are hot. We are ready to put our back to back majors win streak on the line this week. Let’s go win some fuckin money
Recap of Last Year
Last year we expected the course to absolutely destroy the field but the weather ended up not being as bad as we expected and the players took advantage. Morikawa proved to be the best ball striker/iron player in the world as he outlasted Spieth for his second career Major win. Morikawa had never competed on a links course prior to playing the Scottish Open (where he came in 71st), which proved meaningless compared to how he actually performed. Below are the full highlights if you’re interested in getting in the mood:
The Official Breakdown of The 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews
The Course
It’s hard to even know where to start when trying to describe what this course means to golf. It truly is the Home of Golf — where the sport began in the early 15th century. The course can play an extreme amount of variations, significantly dependent on weather conditions. When lacking wind and some rain softening up the greens, it becomes one of the most scoreable courses in all the majors. When it’s windy and quite brutal, it plays similar to a US Open. The fairways are wide and the greens are big — so what is most important is who can throw darts at the pins and ALSO putt lights out. The course holds some of the most iconic holes in all of golf throughout the course but the one that sticks out the most is 17. It is widely considered the hardest hole in all of golf and represents the largest challenge you could have as a leader coming down the stretch. You start out being forced to hit your tee shot over the corner of the hotel onto a narrow fairway then you’re left to find the green with danger everywhere between a huge bunker in front and the road just off the back. It will be the final challenge ahead of an easier 18 which in the right conditions gives opportunity for an eagle. Personally I am hoping we see some of everything this week with the conditions and each player is tested to their max.
Weather
The weather predictions have been constantly changing so please don’t expect this to be completely accurate, plus we all know how shit weathermen are at their jobs. This is taken as of Tuesday morning but this tells us that Friday will be a test and the weekend will have some softer greens and potentially only some wind. I am going off of the prediction that it won’t be a shitstorm of wind all weekend so if it is my pick is probably fucked.
Purse
The R&A increased the purse by a smooth 22% this year, giving the winner a cool $2.5 milly. Per usual, I don’t think the money means anything close to what winning a major is all about but it’s definitely nothng to complain about.
Featured Groups and TV Schedule (EST)
Since this is being played in Europe, us Americans get kind of forced to drastically change our sleeping schedules. It will be a grind but it looks like it’ll be some early wake ups or just no sleep at all.
I’m not sure why Peacock is gatekeeping the featured groups but below are the two biggest I’ve seen. Very cool to see Homa got into the Tiger and Fitz group and definitely deserving.
Now, let’s get to why you’re all here
GAMBLER’S SECTION
Odds for the Weekend
What I’m Looking At
- **Just a note, FanDuel is running a good promo to get money back if your guy makes top 20 but it’s effecting odds so I’m using them Draftkings and Barstool throughout**
- As we all could have expected, Rory comes in as the favorite this week. He placed in 3rd when he played here in 2010 but didn’t play in 2015 because of a football accident…
- Don’t love him too much as wedges and putting are key here and those are just too volatile for Rory
- Xander the silent killer is now the second favorite after winning the Travelers, JP McManus ProAm and the Scottish Open
- He is on a streak very similar to Scottie so let’s definitely take this into consideration
- Our defending champion, Morikawa, comes in at 30-1 (DK) and he proved in the US Open that he definitely can still pull this off
- I said this for the US Open and I’ll say it again, Morikawa isn’t a guy that wins as the favorite and his irons are still the best in the world when he wants them to be
- Zalatoris is also 30-1 (DK) and it is going for the second place grand slam this week. He got cut (and cucked our mortal lock) last week and WD from the last Open so we will see if links golf is really his game
- Rahm has dropped out of the top 3 odds for the first time in what I believe is all year. He didn’t play well at all last week but seeing him at +1600 and knowing what he can do on a links course is something that I can’t get out of my mind. This definitely could be worth a sprinkle
THE PICKS
Winner – Cam Smith +2800
I have gone back and forth on loving and hating this pick which is why I know it is the right one. When you think about Cam’s volatile driver, you hate it but then when you remember how wide the fairways are and how key wedges and putting is, you fall back in love. My hope is that Cam hits the driver only when necessary and he takes the strategy of just giving himself the same wedge every hole and throws darts all weekend. If this place turns to a birdie fest and we get a score similar to the past of -18, Cam will absolutely thrive. The guy proved he can survive the weather at The Players and he has proved he can outbirdie anyone in the world at the Sentry. He has been pushing to win a major for a long time and this week is the one for the Aussie to bring it home.
Longshot – Tiger Woods +8000 (Barstool)
Folks, if you’ve been following me long enough, you’ll know that I may have a small love for Tiger Woods BUT if you’ve been trailing my picks long enough, you’ll know I have never given out a losing pick on Tiger Woods. I am prepared to put that all on the line this weekend. I picked him to make the cut at Augusta and I did it again at Southern Hills. I knew he wasn’t ready to win at that point but now is the time. We have talked so much about the world of golf and what is happening in the golf world and no matter how much things change, there is only one that stays the same and his name is Tiger Woods. Tiger has done it twice here already and it’s time for the trifecta. I’ll see you all at the cashier.
Fuck This Guy – Corey Connors to Miss the Cut +175
I know that Connors has that Canadian flare and he tends to step up at some of these majors but I just don’t see it in him this week. He has been extremely inconsistent as of lately and I can’t say I would be confident in him to do much of anything. If the course gets hard at all, I see Connors falling apart and making this an easy winner.
Scottie Sprinkles – Scottie Scheffler to win +1600
I’m not sure if St. Andrews will be the place for Scottie but I do know he will not be winning without me making money. He is the number one player in the world and he has proved he can step up in any moment and can show he is the best. He did get cut last week but as we saw with Morikawa that doesn’t mean much of anything. Let’s see if we can cash our first Scottie Sprinkles of the year.
Prop of the Week – Mito Perreira Hole in One +13000
Sometimes you just gotta believe and I think it’s time we hit another one of these bad boys. We cashed in on Lowry at The Players and now it’s time for Mito to step up and deliver. I can see Mito being a name this weekend so I’m taking my chances that it’s because he hits a hole in one.
Parlay of the Week – Hideki, Morikawa, JT Top 30 +616
This tournament will be calling for all of the best approach players in the game and that is exactly what this parlay represents. These three have proved over and over that they can be in contention at majors and can consistently score when the opportunity arises. This could be the easiest winner of our lives if I’m being completely honest.
MORTAL LOCK – Tony Finau Top 20 +160
I know what you’re thinking, what the fuck is this. I can’t say it’s the prettiest pick of them all but I do know that Vegas is not giving the correct odds here. Finau has been in the top 20 in 4/5 Open Championships he has played and he is the 15th best approach player in the game. He has all the tools to make a run at winning this thing and I foresee we see his name well above 20th come Sunday. Let’s hope he can keep his putter hot and give us an easy winner.
MORTAL LOCK PART 2 – Jon Rahm Top Continental Europe Player +200
I found this one on Fanduel and it almost feels like it’s too easy. The next guys up are Hovland, Pieters and Sergio. I know Rahm hasn’t been playing at the top of his game but he is still an elite ball striker and a top links player in the game. I genuinely think he can win this tournament outright so hitting this will just be the closest thing you can get to free money.
Three Putt Bogeys 