Welcome back to the show that never ends. There’s a lot to catch up on with LIV, so let’s jump right into all the announcements made over the last couple of weeks. By the way — not sure if anyone watched.. but Finau won the 3M Open over the weekend. I guess that was cool, but anyways – the PGA is in the dead season until the playoffs.. so this weekend is all LIV.
LIV Updates
Since the last blog, LIV has announced four new signings and one target signing. The three players signed were Jason Kokrak(called it nbd), Chucky Three Sticks and Henrik Stenson. Stenson’s announcement was made immediately following The Open, which carried some weight being he was the European captain for the Ryder Cup. He was forced out as captain which brought a bit of an uproar to the golf world. Personally, I think that the Ryder Cup is taking the biggest beating out of anyone in all of this and there will definitely need to be a civil meeting between all leagues in order to fix this well prior to the event. Overall, these signings were pretty lame considering the rumors going around regarding Cam, Hideki, Cantlay and plenty of others, but as we all expect the biggest names will come after the FedEx Playoffs and Presidents Cup.
The next signing wasn’t a player, but I think the biggest news behind Stenson. If you live under a rock and still don’t know, here’s LIV’s announcement video which included one of the weirdest videos from Phil I’ve ever seen:
That’s right! LIV signed David Flaherty to the broadcast team where I’m assuming he’ll be on the course similar to his PGA days. Flaherty has been getting phased out by NBC over the years but I think he still carries a ton of merit, and to me this felt like a big deal. The guy is entertaining and brings a little pazazz to the broadcast team which should help make it a better product. LIV is apparently also after Charles Barkley to join the broadcast team where it seems some people are hyped but I just don’t get it. I love Chuck on NBA pregame and when he broadcasts the Matches, but I just don’t see him fitting this role in a real tournament. I think bringing Chuck into the booth would only decrease the seriousness of the tournament and personally I would prefer they go after a real announcer.
Lastly, LIV announced a new Q-School system bringing relegation into the sport. They said that at the end of 2023, the bottom four players would be relegated from LIV and a qualification tournament would be hosted to determine the new players. They did not specify whether the field would remain as 48, but to me this is a huge move for OWGR points as one of the necessities is a lower tour. My expectation is that in 2024, the plan is to completely reimagine the league and that will be the beginning of the OWGR points as they will also be adding 6 events reaching the other qualification of 14 events. Overall, some pretty big news as LIV continues to do the things that everyone wants in sports — relegation to make the bottom tiers of play much more interesting.
Full breakdown below:
Now, let’s move on to the tournament.
Field
As stated, four new names have joined: Casey, Kokrak, Howell and Stenson. From a team perspective, the most notable changes are that the Crushers landed Paul Casey and Howell III, while Smash added Kokrak. Now, a big note in Portland that still stands out, they are changing teams to represent countries and it’s pretty clear who they want to captain Torque. I’ve heard rumors of Hideki’s contract being worth anywhere from $250-400 million, so his signing could be inevitable. It seems they’ve already ditched the idea of a draft each week -and I’m curious if this is a message suggesting that there will never be another draft…it seems for the rest of 2022 they are going the country route
The Course
This week we are in beautiful New Jersey, heading to what we all knew would be the event bringing the most buzz. We are at Trump Bedminster, the course that was originally set to host the 2022 PGA Championship. I have driven through the course, unfortunately never played it, but I can tell you it’s beautiful. It would have been an awesome spot for a major tournament as the course is long, strategic and has water everywhere but this should at least be a good showcase for the course. The players will be teeing off from a near 7,600 yards so it will be a bombers paradise which should bring out the top guys in the field. This should feel and play like a championship course and I really am curious how this will shape out. I will be in attendance of the event over the weekend so throw me a DM if you want to meet up at any point. We will be posting as much content as possible for you so you all can get an idea of what these events are like, just as we are.
Odds for the Weekend
Once again, sportsbooks are hardly coming around on giving odds out for LIV. It seems to be done on a state by state basis which, unfortunately for me, New Jersey has been left out. These odds are still via Draftkings so they are legit and if you live in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Oregon or Wyoming, you can bet LIV on DK. I do wish LIV put more effort into gambling as you’d think it would be a wide open avenue for them to generate more interest, but it seems LIV and the PGA can’t see what’s right in front of them. Maybe one of them will hire me to run their gambling operations – but for now you will just get my picks for free. Some of the things I’m looking at this week:
- DJ comes in as the overwhelming favorite yet again at +500
- He did prove to be a threat at The Open but his putter betrayed him in classic DJ form letting him fall off
- Bryson looked to be in his best form since the Ryder Cup in September at The Open so he is definitely worth a look
- Brooksie looked like shit at The Open and according to IG he was on vacation partying the last week or two, I don’t think he gives a shit right now and might just coast for a bit longer.
- Paul Casey has looked good in most of the events he’s played in, he didn’t do much at The Open but I think this could be a good spot for him.
- He can hit it far, be crafty and often has contended on some difficult courses like this
THE PICKS
Winner – Bryson Dechambeau +1200
I know this is the popular pick and likely the most obvious pick,but I just don’t see a point in ignoring what could be inevitable. Bryson has played on plenty of Trump courses (including Bedminster I’m sure), so he should know the course and be well aware that it’s designed for his game. If his driver is locked in I can’t imagine someone outdueling him as the course is as long as it gets. Water will play a big part so Bryson will need to be strategic and prove that he can keep the ball straight but as long as that’s on his side, we should see him popping bottles of champagne ahead of the Chainsmokers on Sunday.
Longshot – Matthew Wolff +3500
If you can’t guess, I’m going with the Winged Foot repeat here. I’m expecting this will be a battle of who can hit it farthest with the lowest club. Wolff showed some real promise in Portland and I think he has some potential left in the tank. After cashing his top 10 at +475, I think it’s fair to give him his chance here –he had the lead over Bryson after 54 holes at Winged Foot so why can’t he do it again here?
Team – Crushers GC +500
I am still so confused about what to do with teams. I think at some point I’ll let the people vote on which team we should align this page to in some sort of bracket or something, but for now I’ll see if I can try to pick some winners. The Fireballs betrayed us the last two weeks so it’s time to turn the page move on. Between Bryson, Casey and Chucky 3 Sticks, I see some real potential in the Crushers this week so I will be taking them in this spot. If anyone can find me odds on this that would be very appreciated as well since I haven’t found team odds since London… (Shout out @MarkRobinette for the updated odds).
MORTAL LOCK – Paul Casey Top 10 +170
I alluded to this earlier but I really do like Paul Casey in this spot. We have seen his potential at some of the biggest tournaments including The Players this year, so I think that experience will help make him comfortable here. I am writing this on Tuesday prior to the press conferences, but Casey seems like a guy that stays out of the spotlight and will hopefully not let much get into his head. As far as his game goes, Casey is an absolute gym rat so distance has never really been his problem for him – and since he hasn’t played much this year he should be fresh and ready to go. Let’s see if we can get another mortal lock win here and cash some tickets.
Three Putt Bogeys 