Some people call it the Playoffs.. the LIV lawyer called it the Superbowl.. the PGA calls it the FEDEX Tour Championship…. but I call it one of the DUMBEST tournaments of the season. Sorry if you were looking for some story about how winning the regular season gets you a free ticket to the $18 Million purse. Unfortunately that ain’t happening. To be honest I really don’t get the staggered start — I understand that the PGA wants the top guys being shown on TV, but a big portion of my brain also thinks about it all logically. If they’re good enough they should be there without a doubt, and boy would it blow if they weren’t. Maybe we should scrap it all and do more match play… who knows.. I don’t think the PGA is gonna listen to my ideas anyway, so until they ask my opinion I’ll just say I know the answer but keeping it close to the chest. Now, enough of that, let’s quickly recap last week.
Cantlay ended up defending his title, coming out on top at the BMW Championship. For a while it was looking like Scottie would pull away — even Rory had some buzz. But Robot Cantlay just wouldn’t rest. Somehow Scott Stallings, the Roid-Man himself, ended up being the biggest competitor. At some point he was even the outright favorite to win the tournament. It all came down to 17 where Cantlay was tied for the lead and Stallings was at the 19th hole. Cantlay smacked a drive heading straight at the bunker — but somehow, someway, the ball hit the front of the bunker, leaped 30 feet over the hazard, bounced off another hill, and landed in the fairway rolling another 20 yards to the center. He took advantage of this total member bounce and threw an absolute dart at the flag, landing 3 feet from the cup and sinking the putt to take the lead. He went on to close it out on 18 (almost hitting a ridiculous birdie putt), securing the first ever back to back BMW Championships. See the highlights of Cantlay’s round below:
LIVin For the Drama
I don’t care if it’s corny, I’m keeping the name until someone comments something better. For the first time in what feels like months, we really didn’t get that much news regarding LIV (directly, that is). This week, the news was all about the secret player meeting that Tiger flew in for from Jupiter FL. We’re still learning what was discussed through bits and pieces here and there, but from what I’ve read so far, Tiger and Rory have designed a tour within a tour. This will include biweekly, marquee events throughout the season that will pit the top 70 players against each other — this time for guaranteed money. Definitely plenty more details coming down the pipeline, but from what I understand, these pros will face relegation and promotion in order to play in each event — which is basically a lot of WGC’s. It seems we’re getting further and further away from the classic large field with cuts, mainly because the bigger guys just want their money. Personally, I don’t think this is the way to go about it because this decision HEAVILY effects gambling and odds in general (as seen at the BMW). At this point, the PGA could just give out contracts like every other sport and let the tournaments work as bonuses. We’ll see what happens… hopefully we get some real, concrete info sooner rather than later, but it seems that the PGA is about to change in a very large and serious way.
Recap of 2021 Tour Championship
Last year, Cantay went into the championship as the leader, and came out on top by just one stroke. He fought off Rahm like a champ, prompting everyone to wonder — if Rahm had won the Memorial, would that stroke difference had flipped the two? Probably not, lets be honest here, but that’s really the peak of excitement when you let the leader starting at 10 under.. Honestly, I think I missed most of the tourney last year and I plan on being much more attentive this year so.. hopefully it’s an exciting one.
Course
East Lake has been the home of the Tour Championship since ’04. It’s both beautiful and difficult — despite the low starting scores, the final scores probably won’t dictate a full score-fest as the 72 hole winner typically ranges from 10 to 14 under par. Approach shots will separate the men from the boys here, most so guys like Xander and Rory who are both at the top of the odds for providing that action.
Leaderboard Going In
We should note that Will Zalatoris has WD, so he will drop to 30th at the end of the weekend (Yes, super unfortunate/sad). Zalatoris will lose out on $5-18 Million from my calculations which is extremely painful but this injury sounds very serious so he definitely is taking it as such.
Purse Breakdown
As you can see, the purse this week is why the Tour Championship carries so much weight.Again, this is guaranteed money for all, where we already know who will be last.. so Zalatoris will make $500k despite withdrawing.. Pretty nice check for him there all things considered, and the $18 mil for the winner isn’t too shabby either.
Odds for the Weekend (With Handicap)
Odds for the Weekend (Without Handicap)
As you can see above, we are looking at two different types of odds this week. Since the handicap scoring brings a lot lower odds, we are going to do the winner and longshot picks based off of the lowest 72 hole score. Instead of ‘Fuck this Guy’ we’ll do the winner with handicap. So, now that Vegas found a way to make this more fun, let’s go deep into the tournament stats and projections:
- Rory comes in as the strong favorite here as he has the experience of winning at East Lake and has been playing pretty well lately
- Rahm right behind him at +700 seems very fair as he has also played quite well, knows the course and has been on a heater lately
- Homa catches pure disrespect as this is his first time at East Lake, I don’t know if that’s warranted but something feels unfair there
- Cam Smith is +2000 to win the tournament with the handicap and I just don’t know if that is a good line or not, he is six strokes back but sheeesh.. we’ve seen what he can do when he gets hot
72 Hole Winner – Justin Thomas +1200
These are just bad odds in my opinion, JT may have not been playing all that well lately but we have seen time and time again that he performs at East Lake. Four out of the last five years, JT has finished in the top 5 and I think that kind of performance could repeat and secure a big win. He starts seven strokes behind, but that also means he gets to go in as a no=pressure underdog, which just so happens to be the same amount of strokes behind he was at the PGA Championship this year. JT needs a big moment to get him hyped heading into the Presidents Cup –making a big run here would give him just that (and a shitload of money).
Longshot – Billy Horschel 72 Hole Winner +5000
Longshots are tricky for this one, but I think I like this pick.. Billy has a good bit of experience at East Lake, including winning the Tour Championship so he definitely can handle the moment. He has one of the best strokes gained over his career rounds and has two other top 10 finishes outside his win. Billy has been playing very well this year and I think will definitely put his name on the leaderboard to secure a bigger check than his placing is showing.
Winner w/ Handicap – Scottie Scheffler +225
That’s right folks, I am a fucking coward. I am calling out the PGA and saying that this handicap system ruins the tournament and gives nobody but the favorite a chance to win. Part of me is terrified, but the other part of me is so positive this is the pick. Scottie has the experience at East Lake and he proved at the BMW he is here to win that $18 Million. I plan on betting basically everything I thought I was going to win at the BMW on this pick, so let’s fuckin hope that maybe when we don’t call it Scottie Sprinkles we actually win.
Prop of the Week – Hole in One +450
Well folks, it’s time to take a chance. It’s the last tournament of the season and if we are going to treat it like the Superbowl, we might as well bet on it like it’s the Superbowl. I am taking my chances on the hole in one and saying a prayer. +450 seems really high for one single hole in one, but I guess those are the odds. I hit on Lowry to hit one on Sawgrass 17 so I gotta be able to hit when we get the entire field and every hole right?
MORTAL LOCK – Cam Smith Top 10 -115
This is a highway robbery. I think Vegas is putting a good amount of value into Cam’s injury… but I just don’t think that’s the correct move. Every one of his lines feels extremely inflated and all the guy has said is that he is here to win the FedEx Playoffs. He was in the running in Memphis and now he is well rested and ready to hunt at East Lake. This includes the handicap strokes so we already have a head start, beginning in 5th — so I don’t foresee us ever going below that placing.
Three Putt Bogeys 