How to Bet: LIV Boston

“The PGA may have won August, but LIV owns September.” I saw that somewhere on Twitter but don’t really feel like going back to find who said it. The 2022 season wrapped up over the weekend in East Lake as we saw Rory come from behind to become the first player to ever win three Tour Championships. It was a pretty crazy final day and it was tough to see Scottie fall off the way that he did but Rory definitely earned it as well. It wasn’t really a tournament I cared all that much about but I am happy that the last day turned out to be something entertaining. I still would really like the PGA to step up and change around the format of the playoffs and championship but I think we have a few more years before we get that. That being said, the PGA is now taking a step back for a bit and all eyes are on LIV.

LIVin It Up

So in case you live under a rock, LIV announced the following six signings ahead of Boston. The newest members are Cam Smith, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman, Harold Varner III, Cameron Tringale and Anirban Lahiri. Some big names, some small names but if you haven’t been able to put it together, LIV is targeting the international market. It seems like a very strong strategy and with their emphasis on playing tournaments all around the globe these players are making a lot of sense. Outside of the new announcements there wasn’t all that much news, the pressers were pretty average today but maybe we’ll get some fireworks prior to Friday.

Now let’s move on to the tournament…

Field

A few new team updates:

• HyFleyers added Tringale and I think this team should be set at least for the rest of the year.
• Cam is now the captain of Punch GC and as expected added Leishman to the squad. All four guys are from Australia so clearly the Aussie squad here.
• Crushers picked up Lahiri and I think this team should be set for the rest of the year as well now that they have four solid names.
• Niblicks get probably the biggest change as Bubba becomes the official non-playing captain and adds Varner to the squad. I’m assuming that Petit will be sent down to the Asian Tour once Bubba can play again but believe that won’t be till next year.
• Torque GC brought Niemann on to the squad and named him captain. As of right now, a team with all journeymen as Scott Vincent is now playing on his fourth different team in as many events
• The Iron Heads and Kevin Na are still trash

Overall, we are getting to a point where we need to respect the field that LIV is putting out. They are only four events in and I would equate this field to a middle tier PGA event, at the very least, something that I would deem worthy of my time to research and bet on. If you don’t like you don’t like it but personally I will always turn golf on and think it’s a good time no matter what.

Course

This week we are at The International in Boston which is actually not in Boston but in Bolton, Massachusetts. This will be the first professional event held here so not much to go off but from what I have read there are a lot of trees and it will be all about driving accuracy this week. The course is relatively short playing just 6,944 yards but is a par 70. I would expect both par 5’s to be gettable in two and this could quickly turn into a birdiefest.  

Odds for the Weekend

Just a quick note – Why the Fuck does NJ not have LIV odds yet?

Now that that is out of the way, let’s get into the weeds

• DJ edges out Cam as the favorite, I will say I have seen Cam as the favorite on other books but I think either is fair
  • DJ has played the most consistent out of anyone and is definitely due to get a win so don’t be surprised if he pulls it out here
• Cam is coming off of a pretty average performance at the Tour Championship, he missed the BMW due to injury and he only showed glimpses of his true self over the weekend, personally I’ll be staying away
• Niemann is someone that could definitely win this thing and is out to prove something, he is one of the youngest guys that took the offer and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come out firing
• Ancer at +2200 feels wayyyyy overvalued here, he performed well in Portland and I think he is now very settled in and ready to get after it
• Tringale is a guy I always took to make the cut but I think this could have lit a fire under his ass and maybe he’s got what it takes.
  • After Stenson in Bedminster, it’s hard not to throw a few dollars on the new guys Tringale and Lahiri

THE PICKS

Winner – Paul Casey +2200

Casey came in at 7^th place in Bedminster and looked like he still has what it takes to be a contender out there. The guy can drive the piss out of the ball and can be very accurate when he needs to be. The vibe I’m getting from this course is hit your fairways and hit it far. A course that is less than 7k yards should be child’s play for a guy like Paul Casey and I think now that he is nice and settled in, no longer being the new guy, he has a very strong chance at winning.

Longshot – Lee Westwood +5500

So I’m not sure how many of you follow Lee on Twitter but he has been quite vocal as of lately. I am going with the, if you wanna talk the talk you better walk the walk mantra on this one and guessing he’s getting ready to take some anger out on the course. I hope that anger turns into some strength and fury to win but I’m willing to take the risk that it may not. Lee has been getting chirped quite a bit for his second place finishes and lack of wins so I think it’s a good time for him to get that win as he remains on his quest to play in the Ryder Cup.

Team – Crushers

While everyone is gonna hop on the Warriors, or Aces for short, bandwagon, I’m not fucking doing it. They stacked the team too early and I can’t support a threepeat this early in the series. I like the crushers to go out there and put on a show, I really like Bryson to make a run at this thing right by Paul Casey’s side as well. As I mentioned, I also could see Lahiri being the new guy ready to get motivated and fuck shit up so let’s go get that win and end this Aces winning streak.

MORTAL LOCK – Matthew Wolff Top 10 +230

Look, I get it, a lot of people fucking hate Matthew Wolff. I even have to admit that he’s gotten on my nerves a few times but overall the guy is a pretty good fuckin golfer. He struggled a lot on the Tour and was very open about the mental issues he had but I think LIV has genuinely given him this second wind and the whole team set up has really fueled that. Wolff has cashed me some easy winners thus far and almost stole the show from Stenson in Bedminster as my longshot. He already has two top 10’s so them giving us +230 for a third is just blatant robbery.