We’re backkkkkkkkkkk. After months of getting our doors blown off by trying to bet the NFL, we have finally returned to the PGA season. Do we start with an awesome tournament? Absolutely fucking not. It’s as average as it gets folks but we certainly will be watching and betting as much as we can. A few new things I want to announce before we get started:
- One and Done Pool: It’s free to join and right now the prize is a $100 Top Golf gift card. I want to do something more but it’s the best I can do until we land a real sponsor. We’ll be posting board picks for OAD as well so you can follow along throughout the season. Link is: https://www.runyourpool.com/p/j/9ea20da5a5a7406c9ccde30942d225c1
- Picks Format: This year we are ditching the missed cut bet and replacing it with prop of the week. This can include missed cut, matchup or any random props just to open the options up a bit more.
- Three Putt Parlay: Each week, I will post on the story, three polls to choose for guys to come in top 20 and will make a three player parlay according to the people. Make sure to vote and let’s go get ourselves some winners!
Now let’s get on to the 2023 golf season…
LIVin For the Drama
As always, we need to review the never-ending reality TV show that is LIV vs PGA. The biggest news in my opinion, was the COO Atul Khosla, resigning in mid-December. Atul was the Chief Corporate Development and Brand Officer for the Tampa Bay Bucs and seemed to have very strong plans for LIV’s future whenever he spoke in interviews. Nothing has broken regarding if this was a disagreement that led to this or something random but this is without a doubt a huge loss for LIV.
Now while this one was a loss, LIV did get a solid win for themselves when they announced that their first event will be at Mayakoba. Not entirely sure what went down with the PGA there but it seems LIV signed a deal with them and they will be heading to Mexico for their first event in February. Overall, a relatively quiet offseason so far for LIV but one can expect that things will heat up now that we’re getting back into the season.
The Course
Kapalua is one of the most beautiful courses in the world in as you can expect, one of the most beautiful places in the world. This week we travel out to Maui, Hawaii and play the Par 73 Plantation Course. I have never played but from what I understand, when there’s no wind, this course just becomes quite easy for these guys. The fairways are extremely wide and the greens are gigantic so it will be a matter of who has the best short game overall. I don’t think we’re expecting any winds over there so we’ll be looking at some high scores this week.
Recap of 2022 Tournament of Champions
Last year was an absolute birdiefest at Kapalua. Cam broke the record for lowest score ever in a PGA event after closing Sunday out with a 65. Cam proved right off the bat last season that he was on a mission and I wish I took his -34 as seriously as I should have since this was his first step ahead of The Players. Overall, a lights out wedge game and putting proved victorious for our reigning, non-defending champ.
Odds for the Weekend
Things I’m Looking At
- Rahm comes in as the heavy favorite after his performance last year as well as his very strong fall but I just can’t get behind +600
- Xander finished the year pretty strong and has been very consistent at Kapalua, he is definitely the strongest favorite in my opinion
- Cam Young showed that he’s not going anywhere after a strong third place finish at the Hero, he’s sitting at +2100 to win his first tournament and it’s hard to not jump on that train
- Zalatoris at +3100 is appealing but considering he hasn’t played since the injury, I will definitely be staying away
THREE PUTT PICKS
Winner – Sungjae Im +1900
Sungjae is one of the most under-appreciated golfers on the PGA Tour and I think this could be a great way to start the season for him. Despite only playing here twice, he does have the fourth highest average strokes gained at the course which earned him 5th and 8th place finishes the last two years. Putting will be the difference maker here for sure and Sungjae has proven himself to be a strong putter as well as strong around the greens. Let’s hope that Sungjae can get hot with the putter and get us a win off the bat.
Longshot – Tom Hoge +6500
Pretty small field this week so not too many options with long odds but I actually do like Hoge’s chances here. He’s never played in this tournament but it does fit his strengths all around. Hoge is a strong putter, good around the greens and can drive the ball far. They do say that experience plays a large role at Kapalua but sometimes the numbers don’t lie and Hoge fits the role here.
Scottie Sprinkles – Scottie Scheffler to Win +950
I can’t lie, this was a complete utter failure last year. Scottie did win us the Waste Management and slingshotted this page into glory but ever since I haven’t won a single dollar on him. I think I started doing this right after the PGA Championship and I may have jinxed the rest of his season but it is a new slate. It is extremely hard to believe that Scottie is not going to get a win very very soon so I am back on the Scottie Sprinkles and not letting this guy get another win without me.
Prop of the Week – Winner to Birdie Hole 72 +110
This sounds like a weird prop but it is a fucking lock. The 18th is a beautiful par five where we often see the winds push the ball over 400 yards. We might won’t be on in two here but as long as we get a good drive, we should be set up pretty well here. Most guys birdie this hole at least two if not three out of the four days and the birdies absolutely fly on Sunday. Whether this tournament is close at the end or a blowout make sure you catch the 18th to watch this winner cash.
MORTAL LOCK – Tom Kim Top 10 +180
I can’t lie, I am very worried that Kim is going to be the one that beats Sungjae this week but I had to go with my gut. Tom Kim has been on an absolute heater since winning at the Wyndham. He went off at the Presidents Cup to help make the tournament way more entertaining than anyone expected then followed it up with a win at the Shriners. The biggest threat here is the aforementioned experience but outside of that the key strengths of putting, around the green and approach to the green all strongly benefit his game.
Three Putt Bogeys 