Friends, family, followers (all 20k of you nbd) and most importantly my fellow gamblers. It has been a long six months, and I think I speak for all of us when I say I lost way too much money on the NFL and it is time to finally step into golf season. I know the claim is that the Sentry is the true start of the season, but we are all extremely aware that the season starts in Phoenix. So aware that I would say we shouldn’t even bother counting any loss I had on my bets in January and just start with a clean slate. Deal? Deal.
Before we get into the tournament let’s do some weekly housekeeping in the golf world:
LIVin For The Drama
LIV has announced their 14 events and will officially be playing from February thru November with their season kicking off on Feb 24th. Phil is back on Twitter and looks like he’s been adapting to the whole “extremely rich, cocaine for dinner” type lifestyle. It seems he’s back at his college weight and claims he’s ready to win some more majors — which after the PGA — we really can’t laugh at anymore. There was also a huge blowup of people theorizing the idea of a LIV vs PGA Matchplay event, which while it would be fun, I think we’re about four years away from that reality. Lastly, in another large step of securing the South American fanbase, LIV signed Sebastian Munoz who will be joining Niemann on Torque.
Recap of Last Week
I was gonna talk about Pebble Beach but to be honest, I don’t think many people gave a shit about it. Personally, I used to like this event a lot, especially the last two years where Spieth balled out but with the elevated events I’m not sure about this specific event’s future. It’s starting to feel very similar to the Amex and will turn into just a fun pro-am that only some guys play in as the rest gear up for the Waste Management. Justin Rose won (for what it’s worth) but I can’t say it was the most exciting finish I’ve ever seen.
2022 Waste Management Open
For my day one fans, you all remember that this event was what kicked off ThreePuttBogeys as a whole. It was the first winner that I hit and many have said that I personally kickstarted Scottie Scheffler’s career. Before I stepped in, Scottie was a guy that couldn’t win the big one.. but I stepped up and live bet him over and over and brought the page the win. It was a run for the ages and I think it’s time to defend our title. In case you want to reminisce on the early days:
For a real recap of the event, this was Theegala’s coming out party. He had a chance to win all weekend, but just couldn’t hold on in the end. Cantlay was also on absolute fire but allowed Scottie to sneak back in, eventually falling short in the playoff. It was an all time tournament and meant so much to the rest of the season, so my hopes are high that we can get something similar this year. Also, can’t forget this moment which shook the entire world:
The Course
A couple things to know about the course ahead of the weekend. First of all, there are eagle opportunities on 3, 13, 15 and 17 — so it’s hard to say that any player is ever out of it. The last two winners, Scottie and Brooks, both came back strong on the back nine so don’t be afraid to rip some live bets here either. This course is extremely dependent on mid range approach shots from 150-175 so we are looking for ball strikers here that can keep it tight. After adding in the importance of distance, this course proves to be all about Tee to Green and ranks as the 10th highest on Tour meaning we’re taking a big dawg this week. The one thing that doesn’t seem to be the biggest factor here is putting, so we are finally getting a big change from the ‘Bullshit Putting Contests’ we’ve been seeing the last month or so.
Lastly, wanted to quickly mention this is our first elevated event in the states this year and the field absolutely shows it. We have 18 OF THE TOP 20 — it’s going to be loud and as close to a Players/Major feel as we can get. While that sounds ridiculous, it is no coincidence that 9 out of the last 10 winners here are also major winners. The competition gets high here and the crowd adds that extra factor making this one of the best tournaments of the year.
Odds for the Weekend
What I’m Looking At
- Rory and Rahm come out as clear favorites as they continue to absolutely tear through each tournament.
- They have been ripping up the DP and PGA Tour with a combined 7 wins out of their last 14 events. Just absurd numbers — I don’t blame anyone that takes one of them.
- If I were to lean towards one, I would say Rahm due to experience here and constant top 10’s but he has been a bit more volatile
- Scottie is sitting at +1400 (DK) to defend his title and I have to say I owe him this pick and will be adding this as our final Scottie Sprinkles
- Fitz is +3700 after a horrid performance last week but last year he proved he can tear this course up. He had a solid top 10 finish with almost three strokes gained on the field so I think this is a bit overvalued after last week.
- I should note he said he was a bit injured going into Pebble so take that as you will
- Hovland and Burns both have some appealing numbers here but if you’re a course history guy, which the data indicates you should be for this tourney, both guys love to get cut here.
- Burns has 0.6 Strokes Gained in 10 rounds (cut three times)
- Hovland has -0.92 SG in 4 rounds (cut twice)
- I have to confess that I am addicted to betting Rickie in hopes I catch his first win back. It isn’t healthy and I’m sorry I talk about him so much but I am taking this on the side to get my weekly fix.
- Despite getting cut back to back years, the guy still has a +1.6 SG and a win here, how do you not take +8000 right??
- I have a feeling Cam Young will be a very popular pick which gives serious Scottie vibes, but I should warn it’s a long flight back from Saudi Arabia and players haven’t done too well coming back over
THREE PUTT PICKS
Winner – Hideki Matsuyama +3300 (Barstool)
This is going to be a pick that you’ll see around for sure, but I do feel getting Hideki at 3300 is a bit of a steal. When you factor in course history, approach shots, around the green and driving distance, Hideki checks every item off the list and gives full reason why he’s a two time champion here. He has eight starts here — no missed cuts and six top 16 finishes including finishing 8th last year. There was a moment everyone thought he would win at the Farmers after shooting a 30 on the front nine, but he fell off a bit and it cost him the chance for the win. He still ended up finishing 9th and has made nine straight cuts on Tour. I don’t see a world that Hideki isn’t in the running on Sunday with a chance to make a run on the back nine to bring home our second straight win in Phoenix.
Longshot – Tommy Fleetwood +8000 (Barstool)
I know what you’re thinking, I didn’t choose Rickie but I chose the next worst thing. You are absolutely correct in that statement and I am disgusted with this pick; but hey, sometimes you have to hate a bet to love it. Fleet has posted some strong results in SG: Tee to Green and Approach to Green giving us some confidence to take a shot on him. He had a very strong fall, followed by a lackluster January but I think he can find himself in the running on Friday. Say what you will about Tommy Fleetwood but there are few players that can backdoor his way into a top five — maybe this is the one where he stumbles into a win with a clutch eagle on 17.
Scottie Sprinkles – Scottie Scheffler to Win +1400 (DK)
I can’t lie, adding this fun bet might be the worst thing this page has ever done. It was after the Masters and we were thinking, “hey if Scottie’s gonna win every tourney why not just put a disclaimer for that and win as well?” Since doing that, Scottie has not won a tournament and we are back to square one trying to catch lightning in a bottle for the second straight year. If it were up to me, this would be a different golfer that’s been playing much better, but I owe Scottie the respect for this tournament. I singlehandedly jumpstarted his season last year and I’m ready to run it back in 2023. Let’s go get another one Scottie.
Prop – Sungjae Im Top 20 +110 (DK)
Sungjae kind of fucked us over at the Sentry but it is hard to throw away how well he played two of those rounds. He showed exactly who he is by throwing absolute darts at the pin and just collecting birdies for a 65 and 66. He followed this up with a strong finish at Torrey sneaking his way into the top 5 and showing that he’s not going anywhere. Sungjae didn’t play in 2022 but he had top 20 finishes in two out of three years playing. I think this will be an easy winner and we’ll see him way closer to top 10.
MORTAL LOCK – Collin Morikawa Top 20 +100 (DK)
A lot of people got very angry (and very mean) in the comments calling me names such as loser, asshole, piece of shit and many others when I called Collin a choke artist. I don’t think I necessarily deserved it but this one is for all of those that didn’t believe I ride with Collin. After that absolute heartbreak at Sentry, Morikawa bounced back with a third place finish at the Farmers showing how unfazed he was. He immediately left Kapalua behind him and looked like himself again, and I don’t think he is anywhere close to done. He doesn’t have much experience here but his game fits every part of this course as shown in 2020 when he came in 25th despite losing SIX strokes in putting. He is well renowned as the best iron player in the game and if we see his putter get even a little hot we’re looking at a strong chance for Morikawa to get his first win of the season.
Three Putt Bogeys 