When I started this page, I promised each and every one of you that I would make you rich. Many doubted, many were right for a long, long time, but since I reignited Scottie Scheffler’s career, mine has skyrocketed right next to it. In the last three events, we have hit Scottie winning the WM, our mortal lock at the Honda and three straight props of the week. When we hit the clean sweep this week, TPB will finally be crowned the hottest gambling company in the entire world.
LIVin For the Drama
Before we get into the nitty gritty of the API, just a little housekeeping on the last couple weeks. I wanted to write for the LIV event last week but just ran out of time in the week and couldn’t get it out. I did watch and thought it was decent but the top of the leaderboard just wasn’t really what you want. I get they stole Mayakoba from the PGA and that’s a win but I personally never was the biggest fan of the course and I think the top guys feel the same way judging from their performances. Nevertheless, Charles Howell III just dominated the field on Sunday and walked home with a cool $4.75M between the individual and team prize. A pretty awesome moment for a guy that has grinded for so long to finally get his money. The Honda Classic also happened and Chris Kirk won in pretty dramatic fashion. Absolutely shit his pants on 18 but bounced back as well as anyone could in the playoff to take it home. Overall, a pretty average week of golf but it feels like the calm before the storm with the Arnold Palmer and Players up ahead.
2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Last year was a wild one as Sunday was an absolute bloodbath on the greens. Only three guys finished under par and Scottie had to fight for his life to win the tournament. Hatton posted an incredible 69 with the crazy conditions but was just one stroke away from forcing a playoff against the streaking Scottie Scheffler. This put the whole golf world on notice that Scottie had arrived and it was the second win of his insane streak leading to The Masters.
The Course
Bay Hill is easily ranked as one of the best and most loved courses on Tour. The course was designed back in 2007 and since then only three winners have scored -14 or lower. The conditions will be very firm, the greens will be quick and difficult and the rough will be long. It is a great test for each of the players and has made for some awesome tournaments over the years. Yes, this is the course that Bryson did the thing:
As is every elevated or designated event, the field is going to be absolutely fuckin stacked again so get ready for an extremely competitive tournament. With the field where it is and the expected conditions of the course, I would say this will be as good of a test as you could possibly have ahead of The Players.
Odds for the Weekend
- With the distance as well as the long rough, this course plays long and has always favored the long hitters
- Club head speed on this course actually ranks 7th on Tour
- Course history also plays a fairly important role here as you can see the leaderboard is pretty consistent
- Rahm is the favorite and likely will be for every tournament for the year
- Last year was the first time he played here and finished 17th
- Rory comes in at +950 and is actually pretty tempting here
- Won here back in 2018, then finished 6th, 5th, 10th and 13th since
- Hasn’t played his best game overall lately but it’s hard to ignore that considering his history and the power needed to win here
- Hatton at +3600 is something that sticks out a lot here. Great course history, played great at the WM and has been strong over in Europe
- While Fitz doesn’t necessarily fit the huge power here, he can still hit it far and is notoriously a firm conditions player
- Great course history here with 4 straight top 10’s
Winner – Cam Young +3600
This is the one friends. We are putting our nuts on the table and predicting Cam Young’s first ever professional win. It has been a long time coming but I think that the stats are finally there and the number is overvalued. Cam did not play great at the WM and could have been better at the Genesis but he did kill it at the Saudi Invitational. Cam played here last year for the first time and finished 13th. This combined with the Honda Classic also proved his ability to play extremely well in Florida and he has somehow found a way to get immensely better since. His short game has not been as good as it should be but he does have every other attribute needed to succeed here. He will hit it far, work it out of the rough and if the putter can just find its place, we’re looking at the young star’s first ever PGA win.
Longshot – Tommy Fleetwood to Win +8000
I hate this pick. I am so sick of Fleetwood’s shit but it is so hard to not take the bait of the +8000 when considering his course history. His last four tournaments he was 3rd, cut, 10th and 20th with the 13th highest strokes gained overall in the entire field. He lives for the firm conditions and has some solid distance to help out the other stats. I don’t think he will win and I promise to never take Fleet again if he shits the bed here but I just can’t help take this chance.
Scottie Sprinkles – Scottie Scheffler to Win +1000
I’m not sure why but I almost didn’t do it this week until I had flashbacks of choosing to not bet him in this tournament last year. There is no reason whatsoever that Scottie Scheffler won’t just go back to back in every tournament he won last year and just run his streak back. Scottie has proven over and over that he is not going anywhere and it would be no surprise to anyone if he walked into Bay Hill and immediately snatched his #1 ranking in the world right back from Rahm.
Prop – Tyrell Hatton Top 20 +150
Like I said earlier, Hatton is an absolute killer on this course. He won in 2020, came in 21st in 2021 and finished 2nd last year. If a couple things went his way, he could have even won the tournament last year in insane fashion. Hatton has the ability to play in the hardest conditions, when the greens are fast and firm and has constantly proved that at this course. He finished 6th at the WM and proved that he is ready for the season. He hates Riviera for some reason or another and I think we can go ahead and blame that for his shit performance. Realistically, Hatton hates almost every course in America except for Bay Hill so I feel pretty good about him smiling the first time all year and having some confidence ahead.
MORTAL LOCK – Rory Top 10 +110
At some point, you have to just put your head down and trust the stats. I hate taking top 10’s and I hate taking them even more at such a low number but this is simply too easy. I think we have a very strong chance of seeing Rory walking away with the trophy here but I am extremely confident he will be at least in the final two groups. Rory has proved that his skills and distance fit this course better than anyone else’s over and over with his insane consistency at this course. He has not been playing his best golf lately, but Rory has always been a killer when he arrives in Florida and I think getting his training in at home in Jupiter the last couple weeks is about to pay off.
Three Putt Bogeys 