Ladies and Gentlemen, ITTTTTTT’SSSSS TIMEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! We have finally arrived at one of the best weeks in golf, The PLAYERS Championship aka The 5th Major at TPC Sawgrass. An iconic tournament with some of the most memorable moments in golf has arrived and I cannot fuckin wait to get into it — the field, the purse and the course itself show exactly why this will be the biggest PGA tournament of the year. Now, lucky for you, you’re following one of the hottest gamblers in all of sports. We have now hit five props in a row, two mortal locks in a row and our winner picks have been all over the leaderboard. It’s time to get our second win of the year and make a statement that Three Putt Bets is the only page you should be following.
Some quick notes ahead of the week before we get into the tournament breakdown: There were a lot of haters over the weekend at the API, but I thought it was a fun tournament to watch. Some people hate when it’s extremely difficult out there but I tend to be a fan of chaos which is what we got. Through the entire back nine, we had absolutely no idea who was gonna win — at one point there was a six-way tie for first. Nobody could buy a putt, everyone was putting themselves in terrible positions and it was truly survival of the fittest. Kurt Kitayama (aka The Project aka Quadzilla) proved that he can hang with the big dawgs and took home his first ever PGA win. He walked away with a cool $3.5 million and is on his way to showing that he can be one of the top players in the world. I personally had bets on Rory, Hatton and Scottie, so there was a while I thought I would win without a doubt – but that’s just how things go. Sometimes you get absolutely cucked. Overall, the tournament was a great watch outside of the 3.5 hours of commercials throughout the four hours of coverage. Speaking of that, sign the petition:
LIVin For the Drama
Not too much out in the LIV world this last week as the guys get ready to head to Arizona for the second event of the season. The biggest statement will be forcing the PGA to try not to mention that the top three from last year are not at the tournament. It is a shame that we won’t get to see Cam out there this week to defend his title, but I guess it is what it is for now. Hopefully we get some respect towards Cam this week and see some highlights of his insane performance but unfortunately I doubt we will.
2022 Players Championship
Last year at The Players was a true anomaly as an insane rainstorm came through. We immediately knew that this tournament was going to finish on Monday. The winds and rain made the course nearly impossible and we saw absolute carnage throughout the course, especially on 17. Cam had a lucky draw with the rain from what I remember, but either way proved why he is such an elite player putting absolute lights-out and taking it home. He hit one of the ballsiest shots you’ll ever see to seal it on 17 – it was really an awesome tournament to watch. For those of you that are fans of the page also remember that I hit the luckiest bet of my life in predicting Shane Lowry to hit a hole in one 17. Some links and vids to remember last year and get you jacked up for the weekend:
Now let’s get into the weeds and find out who’s winning this tournament….
2023 Players Championship Breakdown
The Course
TPC Sawgrass is easily the most iconic course on the PGA Tour. It has been the host of The Players since 1982 and there are no objections from anyone for why it continues to host the 5th Major Championship. The 17th island green specifically is one of the most iconic holes in the entire world of golf and continues to deliver every single year. The best players prove to be successful at the hole year after year, while others crumble and have lost the tournament on this hole alone. The course is beautiful and requires players to bring their absolute best game across big shots, big putts and big balls.
The Purse
I don’t want to ever hear again that golfers are underpaid after this tournament. With a total purse of $25 Million, the players are getting absolutely fuckin paid out there. The winner takes home a WHOPPING $4.5 MILLION and probably makes the same amount if not more in sponsors. This is the biggest tournament of the PGA season for a reason and the purse certainly represents that.
Weather
It looks like we have some rain coming in but I think this will just be your average Florida drizzle. I’m not a weatherman, nor do I think weathermen can actually predict weather, but I’m thinking we’re gonna have a clean tournament this weekend. Expect random showers and winds but nothing that should delay the tournament.
Featured Groups and TV Schedule
Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory all in the same group. You can’t ask for much more than that as the top three guys will be facing off from the first tee. This should be an awesome group and the others are just as awesome. Good to see Tom Kim, Kitayama and even Big Dick Rick getting some extra eyeballs as well.
Odds for the Weekend
What It Takes to Win
- Sawgrass has proven to provide pure chaos every year, so don’t be surprised if we see random names up top at points and some of the stars miss the cut
- Water is everywhere and will destroy some players
- More than just 17 as guys are forced to take chances all across the course and danger is always lurking
- SG: Approach to Green is absolutely crucial here as you need to be consistent and hit every green possible, with difficult greens and dangerous approach shots
- SG: Off the Tee is the second (almost equally) most important stat as there are opportunities to score here but you need to find fairways and avoid the water at all costs
- SG: Tee to Green rounds it off as the clear number one stat here with the best player simply being the best driver and approach player out of the field. Hit em straight, hit em long and hit the greens. Easy game.
- We also are looking for guys that can eat par 5’s alive as they are both willing to take their chances on the big shots as well as hit those insane approaches from far out to set themselves up for eagle
Who I’m Looking At
- I can’t believe it but Jon Rahm is yet again the favorite for a tournament…
- I personally don’t have too much faith in him winning this one but I don’t think a soul would be surprised if he won
- He had a bad weekend after an insane start but I expect him to at least shake that off
- Rory comes in tied as the favorite with Rahm and rightfully so
- Since winning back in 2019 he was cut and came in 33rd so hasn’t made any noise but you obviously never know here
- Cantlay is a bit of a surprise as the fourth favorite here, he has been playing well but has been cut three times in a row here so it’s hard to overlook that
- JT is a bit overpriced in my opinion, champion in 2021, played an insane round last year in the rain and is +1900?? Worth a sprinkle in my opinion.
- Morikawa is +2800 and it is extremely tempting here. He has not been great lately and he hasn’t performed as well as he should have over the years at Sawgrass but something about him being counted out makes me think it’s time to get back on the bandwagon
- Tyrell Hatton has low key been one of the most consistent players in the world and did have a strong finish last year with a 13th place finish
- He probably should have won last week if he remembered how to putt within 5 feet
- Billy Horschel is stunningly low for a guy whose home course is TPC Sawgrass but he really has never performed here
- Not throwing $10 to win 1800 on him might be a mistake for what it’s worth
THE OFFICIAL PICKS OF THE 2023 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Winner – Tyrell Hatton +3500
Taking this as my winner for this size of a tournament has me torn. On one hand, I could see Hatton looking the same as last weekend and finishing strong. While on the other, I also see him cursing, throwing 10 balls into the water throughout the tournament as he finishes at the bottom of the leaderboard Sunday morning. That being said, sometimes you have to stick to your gut and remember that we don’t bet players, we bet numbers. Hatton has been one of the best ball strikers in the world since September as he was tearing the DP World Tour apart with constant top 10 finishes, including two 2nd place finishes. He finished 6th at the WM, he should have won last week and all of the stats between driving, approach shots and putting are right there. I really think that he’s ready to finally put it all together and show why he is a top 10 player in the world. Hatton is becoming one of the faces of the European Ryder Cup team and nothing would represent that more than winning The Players Championship.
Longshot – Harris English +10000
For this one, I’m going the opposite route of my winner. Harris’ doesn’t necessarily show what you need statistically to win, but after what we saw at Bay Hill last week, it is very difficult to overlook him. Pricing the guy that could have easily won that tournament in horrid conditions at 100-1 seems outrageous to me. He doesn’t have the best course history here, but sometimes you have to trust the hot hand. Let’s hope that Harris can keep that fire going and show that he’s the same player that won twice in 2021 before the injury. He looks healthy and he finally seems to be back in stride so maybe we can steal one here.
Scottie Sprinkles – Scottie to Win +1100
This almost paid off a second time at the API and I would not be surprised at all if Scottie could seal the second biggest win of his career. He has everything it takes to win at this course and has been streaking to get his second win of the year. We see Scottie in the running every tournament and no matter how many times you think he may be out – you’re suddenly rooting for him to steal the tournament on Sunday. Sprinkle a bit on Scottie and get ready to see his name in the final group.
Prop – Justin Thomas Top 20 +100
We have now hit five props in a row and the streak is being compared to that of Floyd Mayweather, Jamie Vardy and the Uconn Women’s basketball team. I’ve decided that it is only right that we put all of our faith in the JT. He is one of the best players in the world and has consistently proven that at Sawgrass. He won the tournament in 2021, and if the weather was on his side he may have had a chance to go back to back. He is the best ball shaper in the world and can take a tournament over at any second. It is clear that he has struggled with the putter which is why I am not sure he can win this tournament, but I don’t see any reason that he will not be at least in the top 10-15 on Sunday trying to string together some birdies for a chance to win.
Extra Prop 1 – Hole in One on 17 +315
Fanduel is boosting this one and I think it’s a fun chance to take. I gotta at least throw a little bit on this one and just pray we suddenly get “and let’s check in on what just happened on 17!’
Extra Prop 2 – Shane Lowry Hole in One +9000
If you can pull off a miracle, you can do it twice right?
MORTAL LOCK – Max Homa Top 20 +105
They say that there is no such thing as free money but those people have clearly never followed this page. This is a lock. For some reason it feels like Max isn’t really being treated as a top favorite for this tournament despite almost winning at the Genesis and having a ‘bad performance’ at the API where he finished 14th. Max finished 13th here last year and has all the traits it takes to win this tournament. He’s part of an awesome featured group with Spieth and JT and I think he’ll be out to prove that he’s currently the best out of the group. I would be stunned if we’re not looking at Max to win this tournament with a live bet on Sunday as he easily cashes a top 20.
Three Putt Bogeys 