My friends, it has been quite the major season and while it is always sad to arrive at the final major of the year, we can always be confident that we are in for one of the best weekends of the year. As a quick note, I need to admit, I have been absolutely slacking on the writing this year and I do apologize for that one but I do intend on bringing some new content to the page to make up for it. In our most exciting news, we’re getting close to hosting the 1st Annual TPB Scramble in NJ so if you have interest or especially if you have a good place we can host it, please feel free to slide into my DM’s. Now that’s enough of talking about myself, it is time to talk golf.
Before we dive into everything, quick recap of the Scottish Open over the weekend. What a fucking tournament that one was. We went through thinking that Rory would win, then Hatton would come all the way back, then maybe Fleet could pull it off, just to find out the hometown hero, Bobby Mac, was about to do it then all of a sudden Rory found his nuts again and dropped them on the table. We have been waiting for Rory to make some big plays all year and he finally delivered. The shot he hit on 18 blew everyone’s dicks off and showed what the guy can do. Hole 18, 210 out, needs a birdie to win and he hits a sawed off 2 iron to 10 feet. Sheeesh that was lit. Now I haven’t fully decided if this means Rory will roll The Open or get cut but it definitely points to one of them.
Best of Both Worlds?
For those of you that haven’t already heard and apparently live under a rock, then boy do you have some catching up to do. A quick recap is that the PGA and the PIF had a fun Senate hearing the other day and had to disclose all of their previous discussions and boy did we find out some juicy stuff. For starters, it’s a clown show over there, the PGA is in so far over their heads trying to negotiate with some true savages and it’s starting to feel like they’ll be getting run over in the process. There are still tons of details to close out and it is hilarious to see them sending contract negotiations of the Saudi’s simply crossing out that they don’t get veto power over everything. The other fun bit was that there was a specific clause saying that Third Leg Greg is walking the plank and the Saudi’s are basically prepared to watch it happen. Personally, I’m all in for this one since I’m not a Greg guy, he’s kind of just a prick anyways so peace out big dawg. Lastly, there was what they called the ‘Best of Both Worlds’ agreement, which to me could’ve just been part of the Vision 2030 pitch. According to this, LIV is by no means gone, Tiger and Rory will be fully integrated, we’ll have Saudi PGA events and my favorite, Yasir gets a membership with Augusta and the R+A. All time move by Yassir to sneak that one in and try to do what we all have always wanted to do and pull off the miracle of becoming a member of Augusta. Now, while a lot of this was clearly a high ball offer from the Saudi’s, they did have one agreement that actually would be sick. They’ll have a giant all star tournament with the top guys from the PGA, LIV, DP World Tour and LPGA; essentially an all star weekend team event. It’s insane the PGA has been too fucking dumb to do this for the last however many years but it’s a sign there’s a brain in the room that is changing things for the better. That’s basically all you need to know from here and there is still tons to learn but as a whole the PGA and PIF seem far from integrated and we won’t see this full merger or partnership or whatever the fuck this thing is in action for another couple years.
Remembering the 2022 Open Championship
I think I speak for all of us when I say, last year was easily one of the best tournaments I have ever watched. The whole world witnessed Rory go on an absolute tear for the first three days including the bunker shot miracle that we all thought was a sign this tournament was destined for Rory. Most of the world started live betting Rory and that is when it hit me, it’s time to take a stand. Well, I had promised all of you a winner ahead of the weekend and I tripled down on that one man and hammered Cam Smith yet again. I saw it in stars and made sure you all got on my back and got rich with me. Cam went on to have one of the best rounds we have seen in years, shooting a back nine 30 to steal the Open Championship. He birdied five holes in a row and then had one of the best up and downs you will ever see in potentially the most difficult spot on the course on the Road Hole. Cam went on to finish things off on 18 and walk away with the coveted Claret Jug at St. Andrews.
Some videos to remember the wild ride:
That being said, the past is the past and we are no longer living in 2022. We have arrived at The 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.
THE OFFICIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE 2023 OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
The Course
Unfortunately I can’t find the scorecard for the actual tournament since they rearranged the order of the holes so I highly suggest watching the above vid. If you didn’t have time to watch the breakdown, go back and at least watch 17 and 18. 17 is the newest hole on the course and it is designed to take you out back, bend you over and show you each of the 50 states. If you ever plan on playing this hole, I would bring some lipstick so that you can at least look pretty when you get fucked. It looks so simple as a 136 yard hole but it is devious in every form of the word. Guys will be three putting left and right, bunkers are death and well basically if you miss the green you’re fucked every which way. It should make for an awesome penultimate hole and 18 will add even more to the entertainment value. If you fade the ball, which all the top guys do, you’ll be playing with absolute fire since OB is about three yards off the fairway. It’s a par five that opens up chances for an eagle or a double bogey and will certainly keep you glued to the TV when the leader is coming down the stretch. Outside of those two insane holes, the course is beautiful and will play as a true links course should. The course will be dry as can be and the wind should be howling (hopefully not as much as last weekend where they pushed up the fuckin tee times cucking America) and guys are gonna need to get extremely creative on every shot. Get ready for a wild ride boys because we are in for one here.
The Weather
Surprise, surprise I write this blog as I go and just wrote that whole fucking section without looking at the weather. I’m actually not even gonna edit it so that everyone else feels the same pain I just did. Fuck, fuck, fuck, FUCK, FUCK. Why does it fucknig rain every goddam major? It is so out of control and I am not sure who to blame so I’m just gonna come out with it and blame Jay Monahan. I’m not entirely sure why but I just feel as if he had something to do with causing this cuck job. Well, that being said, I don’t imagine the course will be too dry so guess that changes some things. FUCK. Alright, let’s just imagine that even if it rains, the wind will be crazy and we will definitely not be talking about any dumbass golf ball rollback after this one. Par fives will now be even more dictated by the wind and I am not sure what kind of roll out we’ll get here but I expect Sunday at the Scottish Open will have quite a few similarities to every day here.
Featured Groups and TV Schedule
Forgot how brutal living on the east coast was for this tournament. Well, we’re gonna miss a lot unless you plan on going on an absolute bender all weekend and sleeping through the day and staying up all night (can’t blame if you do). Weekend isn’t that bad to be honest, just need to pray they don’t push things up for weather and instead push it back more in America’s favor.
Odds for the Weekend
I know some of you skipped down to here and that’s alright but if you’re still reading, you’re a loyal follower. He’s a promo code for a rangefinder just for you. (Please use it, trying to build the page and they really are high quality)
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Seems everyone is trying to make me look like Adam22 and absolutely cuck me today since FanDuel decided to redo their page so sorry for the new screenshots for the picks. Now, those twats can’t hold me back so we are about to absolutely dig in to the gambling:
What It Takes to Win
- The course has changed quite a bit since Rory won here back in 2014 so let’s basically start from the top here
- We start with Off the Tee which I have as our second most important attribute
- The wind is going to be difficult, the fairways are thin and there are brutally painful bunkers everywhere. You can hit a great shot here that’s just a little bit right or left and suddenly you are buried in a pot bunker. We need guys that can hit it dead center over and over here or simply clear the bunkers which will be 300-320 yard carries without missing by more than 5-10 yards which brings OB into play. Oh and btw, the fairways are all within 25 yards, plenty of them under 20.
- Expect a lot of laying up and relying on long irons into deep greens to try and avoid these bunkers and staying in bounds.
- Next, we gotta dig into ball striking
- When you think ball strikers, you immediately know you’re talking about the best of the best. We saw Morikawa tear apart Royal St. George’s with his ball striking, we’ve seen Tiger hit stingers all around St. Andrews and the list goes on. Right now, Scottie is by far our best ball striker but you can argue plenty of guys at number two. We saw the shot Rory needed to hit on 18 last weekend so try to imagine who is capable of hitting that shot with 10x the pressure and apparently some goddam rain.
- Last and certainly not least, none of the above matters if you can’t putt the lights out
- This also includes your wedge game but at the end of the day you gotta get the ball in the goddam cup and we have seen what not being able to putt has done to Scottie. These greens have some insane undulation and can be giant. We have seen guys find themselves in just ridiculous places on greens at Open Championships that leave them walking back and forth constantly three or four putting; even sometimes pulling the wedge back out.
- If you can’t lag putt, drain 10 footers and find a way to get up and down in shitty positions, there is no chance of winning this tournament. Drive for show, putt for dough is the truest thing in golf and we see this over and over again at every Major Championship
What I’m Looking At
- Rory is coming off a dramatic and emotional win at the Scottish Open over the weekend and it is so hard to decide how to play him based off of this. He has won at this course before, he has all of the momentum and it is his moment to take this tournament. That being said, we have watched him choke this away so many times. I personally will be rooting for Rory but I just can’t commit to him at +650
- Scottie is the best player in the world. This is not up for debate. Yes his putting is shit but if you watch the man play you can’t argue that he’s the best. You can list off every part of his game and he is number one (again, except putting) and if we fall into a world where he gains a stroke or two putting then this thing is already over. We’re looking at a 5% chance that Scottie wins this by five strokes.
- Cam Smith, our defending champion, the man who took ThreePuttBogeys to the moon. The man that stole the Claret Jug from Rory at St. Andrews and dipped over to LIV. He is coming off a win at LIV London and has been overseas since – ready to make some magic again with that putter. I will absolutely not rule out Cam winning here but he is such a chaotic driver that it makes it very worrisome. Cam’s game doesn’t necessarily fit the bill but you never know what can happen when he starts draining every putt in sight.
- Spieth is someone I want to take so badly. I know that he has it in him and I want him to win more than anything but I just can’t do it. He is coming in off back to back cuts and I needed to see some sign of life from him over the weekend to take him. I will probably last second throw a bet in on him so he doesn’t win without me but something is off about his game and if that driver is doing what it always does, he’ll be stuck in some bad spots.
THE PICKS
Winner – Dustin Johnson +3300
Well folks, I picked this in my opening preview for the season back in December and I couldn’t be more confident in it now. DJ is coming off a T10 finish at the US Open, two top tens at LIV and a great history at Open Championships. He fits everything we are looking for in a guy that can drive the piss out of the ball, hit any shot necessary and when the time is right, putt all day long. DJ gained 4 strokes off the tee and 11.5 strokes tee to green at the US Open but let his putting get in the way of making a run at winning it. He has since cleaned his putting up at LIV and his odds being 33-1 is out of this world.
First Round Leader – Collin Morikawa +4000
We are one for our last one on these and it’s time to get a hot streak going. I picked Xander to finish FRL at the US Open because I thought he could get a lead but won’t be able to win the championship; well who fits this better than Morikawa. I think Collin definitely still has it in him to win but when push comes to shove he has showed weakness in the biggest moments with his short game. His approaches and driving have gone way under the radar where he is constantly gaining strokes in both and showing why he’s a top 10 if not five player in the world and I think he is going to come out of the gate swinging here.
Dark Horse – Min Woo Lee +7000
This one could be fun. We saw at The Players what Min Woo Lee is capable of with his 2 iron and that is exactly what is needed to win here. If he is willing to just put that driver away except for when it is completely safe I really think the guy can pull it off. He won the Scottish Open back in 2021 so he is perfectly capable of winning on links courses and even though he had an average performance over the weekend, I still feel +7000 is crazy odds for him. He’s coming off a T5 at the US Open, T18 at the PGA and a T9 at the Travelers so he has shown his game is all there and he has even gained strokes putting his last six tournaments. Trust the play and put some money on us having back to back Aussie winners at The Open.
Prop – Phil Mickelson Hole in One +10000
This is gross. Phil is certainly gonna miss the cut which is why they cranked his odds up but something yelled his name to me so I’m riding with it. Take the bet and don’t look back, maybe you’ll be scrolling through Instagram on Thursday morning and stumble upon the highlight of Phil dunking the ball on 17.
MORTAL LOCK – Tyrell Hatton Top 10 +240
There are three things that are inevitable in life; death, taxes and me betting too much money on Tyrell Hatton. While this does sound ridiculous, this has probably been the most profitable bet of the season just taking this guy top 10 and live all year. He is one of the most consistent players in the field and he is back home ready to fuck. I had Tyrell top 10 and to win over the weekend and even though he choked the chance to win away, securing his top 10 after live betting him on Thursday was the easiest money I’ve ever made. He might start out slow, which will cause you to have to double down but don’t doubt this man. He has proven again and again that he can backdoor his way into any finish and hell I will never count out him winning this tournament.
Three Putt Bogeys 