My friends, my colleagues, and most importantly my loyal supporters of TPB: it is with great honor that I say, welcome back. It’s been incredibly long since we last spoke and I’ll be the first to admit it’s mostly my fault due to everchanging life priorities – but I’ve decided it’s time to turn my back on said priorities and get back into the degenerate lifestyle. Let us be honest here, the gambling never ended. I’ve actually been betting more than ever, though I’ve lost some enthusiasm in professional golf, as many other have, since the divide in the sport. Now that’s neither here nor there because it’s the motherfucking Masters, and in Augusta there is no divide. Well, at least since a couple not so chill rules were changed due to Tiger’s dominance.. but again not the time to dive into politics – let’s talk golf.
Where to start.. I don’t feel like checking my last blog but it was probably the US Open where Wyndham whipped his dick out and slapped Rickie’s championship hopes right out of his hands. Oh and Rory got second again. I’ll get to that later as well I guess. Since then, the guy who probably got swirlies from people like DJ in high school won The Open and in stunning fashion Scottie learned how to putt for a couple of weeks. Think that about sums up the PGA season so far this year besides the longshots winning every tournament and making the whole “anyone can win on the PGA” motto kinda fucking lame. LIV has also played golf but most of its international so I’m not sure if it counts if it’s not viewable during normal eastern standard time. All I have is that Niemann beat Sergio in a playoff a couple months ago. Alright summary over. I’m horned up to start talking about The Masters. Let’s get into it.
The Set Up
Is this even necessary? We all know what it means, it just means more. It’s Augusta, it’s The Masters, the course that Tiger built, the mecca; it’s the fucking Catalina Wine Mixer. When it comes to the PGA and LIV bs all of that gets thrown to the side and it’s about one thing – winning that Green Jacket. That being said, we do get a little additional drama from LIV and PGA with Rahm’s return as champion, now being a LIV guy. Plus we got the merger that’s happening but is now delayed but might not happen but has to happen without anyone knowing if it’s happening. The build up is there, the stage is set and the world is ready to watch the best players out there compete on the greatest stage of all time.
Quick Recap of 2023
Let’s all take a second to remember what went down last year; this included rain delays, falling trees, and as much as it hurts me to say, Brooks choking. Not to mention the absolute tear this TPB page was on, hitting at the time our fifth major in a row. It was too lit. To be fair we all knew going in that it would be Rahmbo or Scottie pulling out the win. But after Rahm four-putt the first hole, the whole tournament exploded wide open. The LIV guys were put to their first actual test to prove they belonged and they sure as hell dropped their nuts on a field of hardos, proving they still had it. Phil fucked around and stole second place, Sandy Reed fluffed up a few lies and found himself a top five finish, but it all wasn’t enough considering how insanely well Rahm was playing. A couple highlights to remember the weekend:
Now, the memories are in the past and it’s time to begin the unforgettable journey we are about to embark on.
THE OFFICIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE 2024 MASTERS CHAMPIONSHIP
The Course
I think I do this every year and breakdown why I don’t need to describe the greatness of Augusta. It’s every man’s paradise, it is the most perfect place on Earth. If you have ever played the sport all you can do is daydream and imagine playing the course. If this is your first time, get the tissues out – you won’t be able to handle yourself when you see the azaleas and, not to get you all riled up now, Tiger throwing darts on the course.
The Weather
It could be worse, it could be better. I know weathermen can be quite retarded and most of the time are simply just guessing. It may rain all four days or no days or in the middle of the weekend etc.. Fingers crossed it’s better than last year’s weather.
Odds for the Weekend
Finally we can dig into what actually matters, let’s see what we can find:
What It Takes to Win
- Precision – when it comes down to winning at Augusta, the guys that win are putting the ball exactly where it needs to be when it needs to be there. That means finding comfortable spots on the green, making correct decisions about which pins to attack and which to lay up to, driving it to the correct side of the fairway, and most of all finding ways to give yourself constant birdie chances. It sounds simple and similar to every other golf tournament, but Augusta has proven over the years what happens when you make mistakes; we have seen it so many times how fast someone can blow up, no matter how great the player.
- Creativity – I know chicks dig the long ball, but this isn’t the tournament to flex the Bryson steroids and attempt to bully the course. We’ve seen the destruction that Rory and Bryson have found by trying to outdrive everyone – it can easily send whoever to the shitter year after year. Players need to be able to manipulate the ball unlike any other tournament, and the greens force you to become a short game god.
- Putting – big surprise, the most immaculate greens in the world are near-fucking impossible to putt on. If you can’t hit putts and are constantly putting yourself in positions in danger of three putts then don’t bother showing up. As I mentioned earlier, it can happen in the blink of an eye just like we saw with Rahm on day one last year.
- Experience – There is no other course that relies on experience more than The Masters. We have seen it time and time again how important a role experience plays. We constantly see the experts of Augusta shine and this year will be no different.
What I’m Looking At
- Scottie +450 – I don’t even know what to say anymore. The guys odds are out of this world and can only be compared to Tiger when he was at the top of his game. I wanna say they’re ridiculous but I think we’ve all learned at The Players that this price probably isn’t wrong. If Scottie putts the lights out then this thing is over before it even begins.
- Rory +1000 – Oh boy, here we go again.. It doesn’t really feel like the hype of Rory going for the Grand Slam is as high as other years, but I’m sure that feeling will heat up very soon. I’m not sure what to say anymore, the guy hasn’t won a major in a decade and he is beginning to fall in love with second place. I will be rooting for him, I know big LIV guys will be rooting against him, but I don’t think any of us will be betting on him.
- Rahm +1100 – Defending champ is catching a slightly insulting line. Last year Rahm was +950 here and he took it home. However I do realize it feels difficult to give LIV guys that kind of price when you don’t get to see them play as often as we used to.
- Nieman +2800 – Take everything I just said about correct pricing on LIV guys and throw it out. This is too high and Vegas doesn’t know what they’re doing. I will be taking a different player, but this won’t be the last you see about Niemann on this blog.
- Ludvig +2800 – It’s tempting.. but first Masters is very worrisome. I really think Ludvig is one of the best ball strikers in the world. He can make a run at this thing but I’m not sure if this is the year to go all in.
- Zalatoris +3500 – Willy Z is back where it all started. I am slightly surprised this line is as high as it is considering his recent performances at the Arnold Palmer and Genesis, but I guess him getting cut at The Players is something they’re putting a lot of weight into.
- Tiger +15000 – did you really think I was gonna forget him? I don’t care if Tiger is 85 years old and in a wheelchair, I am ready to bet on him. Do I love that he’s not having sex ahead of the tournament? Absolutely not. That being said, I think he might be getting into the heads of every player out there, making them think they shouldn’t be fucking where in reality Tiger’s actually piping out hookers left and right. If this is the case, Tiger is live in this tournament and he has a shot. Either way, just take the bet, don’t be the clown that didn’t want to bet at least $10 on Tiger to win a quick 1500.
THE OFFICIAL PICKS OF THE 2024 MASTERS CHAMPIONSHIP
HERE WE GO…
Winner – Joaquin Niemann +2800
Like I said this is a horrible line from Vegas. Niemann has been on an absolute tear this year and has not slowed down. He has played out of his mind in every LIV tournament and we have already learned that the LIV guys can still play with the best of them. Niemann is one of the best players in the world and his irons make him one of the best ball strikers in the world. The fields that he’s playing against in LIV are no joke and he has absolutely dominated; he is putting up near Scottie type numbers and if he was doing this on the PGA he would be +1000 in this tournament. Take him top 20 -120, top 10 +240, top 5 +450 and don’t back down now; smash him to win +2800.
Longshot – Tiger +15000
I just need to make it clear I’m betting Tiger and all of you should too. No details needed and will do an actual longshot now.
Actual Longshot – Min Woo Lee +7000
I can’t lie I don’t actually love this pick because Min Woo absolutely fucked me at The Players. If it wasn’t for me going all in on Wyndham I would have had to break the news to my parents they no longer owned their house. When Min Woo is feeling it, his irons are spectacular and he can hit the ball a country mile. He’s had success at Augusta and the course fits his game well. Take a shot here and throw a few bucks on Min Woo.
First Round Leader – Will Zalatoris +3500
I don’t think enough people are talking about Zal this weekend. The first round is the perfect time to remind everyone he’s back. Get ready for Zalatoris to come out HOT out of the gate and set himself up in prime position to have a chance to win this thing.
Mortal Lock – Cam Smith Top 10 +360
If you recall, the last time I called out a big tourney for Cam Smith was at the 2022 Open where he took down Rory in one of the greatest tournaments we have ever seen. Cam’s game defines everything you need at this tournament and he constantly proves that he can deliver at Augusta. His short game is a gift from God himself and when the man gets hot there is no stopping him. He has proven his game is back on LIV and his two top five and four top 10 finishes at past Masters speak for themselves. Cam did withdraw last week due to illness which is certainly a worry and the only reason i’m dropping him from winning to placing.
Let’s eat boys, good luck out there.
Three Putt Bogeys 