Hello friends. It’s been a bit but we are back and ready to go for the US Open at Pinehurst. Since we last spoke, a few things have happened, Scottie dominated The Masters again, got arrested for conspiracy of raping the PGA, or as the cops claim a ‘traffic accident’ and Rory started piping out Amanda leading to his divorce. I think I speak for everyone when I say we all thought that we needed a dawg like Tiger back in golf but little did we know, all we needed to do was look around and realize the dawgs have been here all along. Now enough about the past, time to think about the future and what futures we’re putting on for this weekend.
The Set Up
We are returning to Pinehurst for the fist time since 2005 and I couldn’t be more excited. For those of you have never gotten the chance to play it, let me tell you, it is absolute bully ball out there. I suck at golf in the first place and this course had me feeling as if I’ve never played the sport before. I even tried cheating and taking fake drops or even using a hand wedge here and there and it didn’t even help; it almost felt like it got worse. The fairways are thin, the greens are small and if you don’t land the ball on the green just right, you’ll find yourself in a horrible position trying to decide whether you should chip or putt from 20 yards off the green; it’s awesome. Pinehurst is a golf sanctuary and I really think this is going to be a true test of a major champion and am confident that we won’t get some ridiculous scores like we had at the PGA.
Golfer wise I don’t think I need to go into too much detail as to who is the leader of the pack but in case you live under a rock, Scottie Scheffler is the new age Tiger. His stats are only comparable to Tiger’s 2000 year when he became the Messiah and if you really dig into it, he’s actually playing better. The guy is on absolute fire and if it wasn’t for getting arrested and his caddie choosing his daughter’s graduation over another major I think he would’ve won the PGA as well.
Quick Recap of 2023
Last year was a true mix of emotions. There was so much hype and excitement for LACC and the course got its ass handed to it. Xander and Rickie set course records on the first day and we immediately knew this was gonna be an absolute birdiefest. Things slowed down a touch as we got into the weekend and the story became the return of Rickie and whether he could finally do it between winning another tournament and even more so win a major. Unfortunately, history repeated itself and we watched the let down that is Rickie’s career show and he never really had a chance on Sunday. It turned out to be a battle between Wyndham and Rory with a little more intensity than expected but eventually Wyndham prevailed, winning his first career major.
THE OFFICIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE 2024 US OPEN AT PINEHURST
The Course
Pinehurst is an absolute monster of a course and one of the more challenging tests in golf. The course is gorgeous, the architecture is impeccable and the test of golf is going to be one to remember. The Donald Ross turtleback greens will be the star of the show and it’s going to be fascinating to see how guys go about playing the course and the strategies they take to survive these greens.
Weather
it’s gonna be hot as fuck
Odds for the Weekend
Let’s start digging into the odds
What it Takes to Win
- Short game will remain king at Pinehurst and if you can’t putt the lights out and find your way to surviving these turtleback greens you have no chance at winning
- Approach shots are going to take incredible accuracy here, you will need to hit the perfect shot to hold these greens and creativity is going to be everything
- Distance will always be a factor at these tournaments and I think will be especially be important for being able to have a short wedge in. The guys that drive it tour average and find themselves in waste areas are going to have a lot of trouble holding the greens hitting 6 irons
What I’m Looking At
- I think I’ve mentioned it enough already but if you don’t bet Scottie for something then you don’t know golf. I don’t need to explain how good he is, you just need to trust that there’s a reason he is only +300 to win the fuckin US Open
- Xander +1000 – I really don’t like these odds for Xander, I get he just won the PGA and he’s been incredible at US Open’s over the years but I just don’t think this is the one. I may look like a clown for writing him off but i’ve seen Xander blow enough leads to know he should be higher odds than +1000
- Morikawa +1600 – this one is interesting. Collin has had an incredible season but the guy can’t seem to do anything when the pressure is on and based off of everything that can be worrisome about his game, this course is going to expose him. He doesn’t drive it far, his short game often betrays him and his putting hasn’t been there on a Sunday at a major. Personally I won’t be touching this one.
- Bryson +2000 – It’s safe to say Bryson has earned a lot of respect from golf fans this year and it couldn’t be more deserved. He has shown out at the majors and proven that his game is all there and he has even become more likeable. Bryson can hit the shit out of the ball and his short game could shine here so definitely keeping him in the back of my mind.
- Rory – this aint it
- Brooks +2200 – it isn’t a major championship without saying ‘you think Brooks steals this?’ tbh I think he might steal this. Low scoring difficult tests are where Brooks thrives and I really think he may come out on top here
THE PICKS
Winner – Cam Smith +5000
I said it before and I’ll say it again. To win the US Open at Pinehurst you need to have the best short game in golf and the first person that comes to everyone’s mind is Cam. He is an absolute artist with his wedges and the feel he has when putting is out of this world. Cam is one you can trust to hit the 10-15 footers when you need, and when the pressure is on, his putting often seems to get better. His driving could be slightly worrisome but if he’s hitting fairways I have no doubt that Cam will be at the top of the leaderboard ready to win this tournament. Let’s also not forget the last time I called out Cam to win a tournament was at St. Andrews so let that sink in.
Dark Horse – Will Zalatoris +8000
I gotta say these odds just feel way too high and we have seen Zal shine at some of the hardest courses out there. People will immediately write him off because of his putter but he has a strong short game and great accuracy with plenty of experience. There’s a reason he almost won at The Country Club and I wouldn’t rule him out from making a run here at these crazy odds.
First Round Leader – Patrick Cantlay +5000
I’m taking this for a few reasons. For starters, Cantlay is one of the most crafty players out there and his putting is exceptional. He can drive it far and accurately and when he catches fire there’s no part of his game that is left to critique. The other reason is that nobody wants him to be at the top of the leaderboard so if he is hopefully I can at least make some money off of him.
Scottie Sprinkles – Scottie Scheffler to Win +300
Need I say more? We started this bet after he won the Waste Management the first time back in 2022 and it has been an incredible decision. This page discovered Scottie and we really don’t get enough credit for it but if you follow TPB you know we’ve been taking it since Scottie was +2000 to win tournaments.
MORTAL LOCK – Brooks Koepka Top 20 -105
This is free money. Brooks thrives in difficult conditions and my guess is that the winning score will be somewhere between -5 and -7 making this the exact environment he lives for. We have seen multiple times when everyone says the course will be a bloodbath and Brooks comes out on top because the guy just knows how to grind out pars and sneak in a birdie when he has the opportunity. Take Brooks Top 20, 10, 5 and even sprinkle him to win it all.
Three Putt Bogeys 